Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, and members of the NTA network (forthcoming) Six Ways Population Change is Affecting the Global Economy. Population and Development Review.
New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades 1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; 2) GDP will shift towards sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; 3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; 4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower income nations; 5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and 6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional and global economies.
New Global Demographic Dividend Estimates
New estimates of demographic dividends for 166 countries around the world are now available. The estimates were constructed in cooperation with the United Nations Population Division in conjunction with the 50th United Nations Commission on Population and Development.
More information including downloadable data is available here: Dividend Data
Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and members of the NTA network (2014). Is Low Fertility Really a Problem? Population Aging, Dependency, and Consumption. Science (346): 229-34. DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542.
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. While low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living. Full text and supplementary material