Published NTA Papers Public
Hammer, Bernhard, Sonja Spitzer and Alexia Prskawetz Age-Specific Income Trends in Europe: The Role of Employment, Wages, and Social Transfers. Social Indicators Research
This study analyses age-specific differences in income trends in nine European countries. Based on data from National Accounts and the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, we quantify age-specific changes in income between 2008 and 2017 and decompose these changes into employment, wages, and public transfer components. Results show that income of the younger age groups stagnated or declined in most countries since 2008, while income of the older population increased. The decomposition analysis indicates that the main drivers of the diverging trends are higher employment among the older population and a strong increase in public pensions, especially for women.
Olaniyan, Olanrewaju, Noah Olasehinde, Oyeteju Odufuwa, and Olabanji Awodumi. The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Volume 20.
The population of West Africa is fast growing with a projection of large youth population which may limit the potential opportunity provided by the African Agenda 2063 and the global 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the sub-region. This study investigates the nature and extent of demographic dividend in the West African sub-region, using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology. The Countries in the sub-region were aggregated based on the two available monetary zones including West Africa Monetary Zone (WAMZ) and West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Findings reveal that children consumption is lower than for adults in West Africa. However, consumption expenditure is lower in the UEMOA countries, than in WAMZ or the West African average at all age groups. It is also found that UEMOA countries reached peak income earlier than those of WAMZ. In addition, consumption expenditure exceeds the labour income at all ages below 29 years while surplus ends at 63 years. The study further discovered that West Africa had entered the period of first demographic dividend since year 1999, and expected to peak in the year 2049.
Rice, James Mahmud, Jeromey B. Temple, and Peter F. McDonald (2021). Intergenerational inequality and the intergenerational state. Journal of Population Research. 38(4): 367-399. View-only, full-text version.
Inequality between generations is a central feature of human societies. Moreover, within human societies many institutions have developed that mould and shape intergenerational inequality, including the state. Nevertheless, intergenerational inequality has typically been only loosely defined as a concept. This article examines intergenerational inequality in income, as well as how the state works to alter intergenerational inequality in income through the redistributive effect of public transfers. In order to provide greater definition to the concept of intergenerational inequality, the article introduces a new measure of intergenerational inequality: the IGI index. Building on this index, the article also constructs a new measure of the redistributive effect of public transfers on intergenerational inequality. With these new measures added to its methodological toolkit, the article presents new evidence on the incomes and public transfers paid and received by different ages and generations. This evidence is drawn from the recently developed Australian National Transfer Accounts, which include data on incomes and public transfers in Australia during the 28-year time period between 1981–82 and 2009–10. The analyses presented suggest that there are substantial inequalities in the incomes received by different generations, with earlier generations generally receiving less income in real terms over their lifetimes than later generations. As the state has operated through time—receiving taxes and other public transfers from some individuals and paying social protection and other public transfers to others—it has mostly favoured later generations more than earlier generations. In doing so, it has mostly worked to increase intergenerational inequality.
Vanhuysse P, Medgyesi M, Gal RI (2021) Welfare states as lifecycle redistribution machines: Decomposing the roles of age and socio-economic status shows that European tax-and-benefit systems primarily redistribute across age groups. PLoS ONE 16(8): e0255760. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255760
Social scientists identify two core functions of modern welfare states as redistribution across (a) socio-economic status groups (Robin Hood) and (b) ‘the lifecycle’ (the piggy bank). But what is the relative importance of these functions? The answer has been elusive, as the piggy bank is metaphorical. The intra-personal time-travel of resources it implies is based on non-quid-pro-quo transfers. In practice, ‘lifecycle redistribution’ must operate through inter-age-group resource reallocation in cross-section. Since at any time different birth cohorts live together, ‘resource-productive’ working-aged people are taxed to finance consumption of ‘resource-dependent’ younger and older people. In a novel decomposition analysis, we study the joint distribution of socio-economic status, age, and respectively (a) all cash and in-kind transfers (‘benefits’), (b) financing contributions (‘taxes’), and (c) resulting ‘net benefits,’ on a sample of over 400,000 Europeans from 22 EU countries. European welfare states, often maligned as ineffective Robin Hood vehicles riddled with Matthew effects, are better characterized as inter-age redistribution machines performing a more important second task rather well: lifecycle consumption smoothing. Social policies serve multiple goals in Europe, but empirically they are neither primarily nor solely responsible for poverty relief and inequality reduction.
Narayana, M.R. (2021). Economic inequality by age and its implications for inequity for living generations in India: Evidence based on National Transfer Accounts. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional science.
Using the framework of National Transfer Accounts (NTA), this paper calculates the economic inequalities by age and analyses its implications of inequity for the living generations in India. Economic inequality is measured by the standard Gini coeficient using household consumption and labour income data from the official national sample surveys. Inequity for the living generations is measured by the NTA’s concept of Lifecycle Deficit for four age groups (Young, Youth, Adults and Elderly). To highlight the nature and magnitude of inequity by types of economic inequalities and years, both income and consumption inequalities are calculated by age for financial year 2004–2005 and 2011–2012. Economic inequalities by age are integrated into the inequities for the living generations by modifying the Sen’s measure of inequality-discounted per capita income. Main results show that higher inequalities result in larger and differential impacts on inequity of the living generations. In particular, the income inequality has a larger effect on increasing inequity than consumption inequality. These results offer unambiguous evidence for the age-specifc inequality effects on inequity in the living generations and show important implications in India’s policies for design of broader and complementary distributional objectives in terms of simultaneous reduction in economic inequalities and inequities for the living generations. Subject to comparability of socio-economic structure in a generational economy like India, the methodology and implications of this paper are of general relevance and applicability for developing countries in the Asia–Pacific Region and elsewhere in the world.
Health Policy Training and Research Programme (HPTRP) (2020). Training Manual: Estimation of the Demographic Dividend Profile and Preparation of the Demographic Dividend Report. This article is available at HPTRP.
This manual is intended as a Train the Trainer manual for developing countries that are still within the first dividend window. The manual explains how to compute the age profiles of the National Transfer Accounts flows and to estimate the demographic dividends for different countries. Recently, the methods have been applied to estimate NTA at the sub-national level. The manual builds the basic resource material for estimating NTA published by United Nations Population Division. The emphasis of this new contribution is to provide training guidelines that will help academics and bureaucrats to construct NTA age profiles and to prepare a comprehensive report on their country’s Demographic Dividend. The manual also discusses ways through which the National Transfer Accounts can be mainstreamed into the national accounting and government systems. Although this manual has been produced to facilitate training on the estimation of National Transfer Accounts for different groups and regions of Nigeria, it is our belief that other countries within the NTA network will find the manual useful for their training purposes. It should be especially valuable for training government officials responsible for estimating the demographic dividend and preparing a demographic dividend report.
Goldstein, Joshua R. and Ronald D. Lee (2020). Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).
To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.
Turra, Cassio M., and Fernando Fernandes (2020). Opportunities and challenges to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in Latin America and the Caribbean. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This article is also available at ECLAC.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is susceptible to both demographic changes and how families, governments, and the market distribute resources and time within and between age groups. LAC will soon confront the same economic and fiscal challenges as aging Europe does now, but with three additional challenges. Population aging will take place faster than it has in Europe, at lower levels of economic development, and under high and persistent levels of inequality. In this ECLAC/CEPAL technical report, we explore potential associations between demographic changes, National Transfer Accounts (NTA), and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in several countries. We also offer a set of recommendations in the context of critical demographic changes.
Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Gretchen Donehower (2020). Changes in Intergenerational transfers in the United States from 1961 to 2016: Follow-up Report. Salamanca: International Centre on Aging (CENIE).
CENIE has published a follow-up report on this NTA research. Versions in Spanish, Portuguese, and English are available on the CENIE website.
Solé, M., Souto, G., Rentería, E., Papadomichelakis, G. and C. Patxot. (2020) “Protecting the elderly and children in times of crisis: An analysis based on National Transfer Accounts”, The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Volume 15 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100208.
The welfare state has been shown to be a powerful, effective mechanism in the fight against poverty and social exclusion. Yet, it retains a surprising bias towards the elderly, as identified in more than one strand of the social sciences literature. We construct the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Spain before and after the Great Recession to determine how this bias might have shifted during the crisis. Our results confirm that children have borne the brunt of the economic decline. The rise in unemployment and the fall in wages inevitably led to the impoverishment of families, deprived of adequate social policies to act as a counterbalance. In contrast, the elderly were by far better protected, thanks to the well-established public pension and health care systems. The question arises as to why high-income societies appear to be so averse to old-age poverty while they seemingly accept child poverty almost without flinching.
Vogt, Tobias, Fanny Kluge, and Ronald Lee. Intergenerational resource sharing and mortality in a global perspective. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020; 201920978 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920978117.
Willingness to share has been critically important for people's past evolutionary success and present daily lives. This article documents a strong linear relationship between the public and private sharing generosity of a society and the average length of life of its members. Findings from 34 countries on six continents suggest that survival is higher in societies that provide more support and care for one another. They suggest that this support reduces mortality by meeting urgent material needs, but also that sharing generosity may reflect the strength of social connectedness, which itself benefits human health and wellbeing and indirectly raises survival.
Cet ouvrage propose un changement paradigmatique, après que les nombreuses politiques de développement ont manqué à la promesse de la prospérité partagée dans les pays en développement. Son ambition est d'accompagner efficacement les gouvernants par une simplification des méthodes, en leur proposant des outils adaptés à l'élaboration de politiques multisectorielles.
Hammer, Bernhard, Ronald Lee, Alexia Prskawetz, and Miguel Sanchez-Romera, guest editors (2019). Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. Volume 17.
This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook contains chapters derived from the EU-funded AGENTA project, which uses and extends the methods of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project to shed light on the ways in which the families and governments of Europe draw on the earnings of the working-age population to support both children and the elderly. One chapter also discusses transfers of informal care time in the United States. Contributors include several NTA members.
Sánchez-Romero, Miguel, Gemma Abío, Montserrat Botey, Alexia Prskawetz, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha, and Concepció Patxot (2019). Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 9-36.
The paper analyses the impact of population ageing on the sustainability and the intergenerational fairness of public fiscal policy in three selected European countries (Austria, France, and Spain). NTA and NTTA data are introduced into a large-scale general equilibrium OLG model with realistic assumptions regarding demographic trends and changes in population structure. The results for sustainability show a sharp increase in the share of public expenditure to GDP for the main programmes of the welfare state.
d’Albis, Hippolyte, and Ikpidi Badji (2019). Intergenerational inequalities in mortality-adjusted disposable incomes. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 37-69.
This article analyses the development of inequalities between the generations in France using a composite indicator including income and life expectancy. Mortality adjusted disposable income has greatly increased over the generations. However, a breakdown by sex shows that this increasing trend is attributable to rapid growth in women’s income, while men’s income has stagnated for all cohorts born since 1946.
Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka, Anita Abramowska-Kmon. Irena E. Kotowska, Wojciech Łątkowski, and Paweł Strzeleck (2019). Welfare state and the age distribution of public consumption and public transfers in the EU countries. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 71-97.
The article extends the discussion of the welfare state in the literature by presenting a quantitative assessment of the age distribution of public resources. It investigates the differences in the distribution of public transfers between age groups in different European welfare state regimes using the National Transfer Accounts approach. Total public expenditures and revenues are changing in response to population ageing: they are expanding in the Scandinavian countries, and they are contracting in the CEE countries. These developments may lead to the further divergence of these welfare regimes.
Haodong, Qi, Kirk Scott, and Tommy Bengtsson (2019). Extending working life: experiences from Sweden, 1981–2011. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 99-120.
This paper provides a detailed overview of retirement trends in Sweden, disaggregated by educational attainment, health status, and country of birth. Our results show that the growth pattern in the average effective retirement age since the mid-1990s was shared by individuals regardless of their educational level, health status, or country of birth. This shared growth pattern suggests that it is possible to extend the working lives of all groups of individuals, regardless of their socio-economic and demographic characteristics.
Šeme, Ana, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, and Jože Sambt (2019). Historical patterns of unpaid work in Europe: NTTA results by age and gender. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 121-140.
This paper presents an analysis of the age patterns of production, consumption, and net transfers in the form of unpaid work by gender over time. The results show that the evolution of age patterns over time differed between men and women, and was highly affected by different demographic trends, as well as by the specific institutional background of each country. Our findings indicate that despite the differences in age patterns over time and across countries, two main characteristics of these patterns did not change: i.e. transfers of unpaid work flowed first from women to men, and second from the working-age population to children and – to a lesser extent – to the elderly.
Zannella, Marina, and Alessandra De Rose (2019). Italians’ use of time during the economic crisis: implications for the gender division of labour. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 141-162.
This article builds on time use micro-data for Italy to analyse the evolution of individuals’ time allocation during the 2002–2014 period. We document a decrease of about two hours per week in female housework coupled with a similar increase in male unpaid work over the entire period. However, while signs of this gender convergence were already evident for women in the years before the recession, we do not find any significant change in male unpaid work between 2002 and 2008. It was only after the onset of the economic crisis, and the consequent losses in paid work hours, that men started spending more time on housework and family care.
Dukhovnov, Denis, and Emilio Zagheni (2019). Transfers of informal care time in the United States: the role of demographic differentials in intergenerational flows by age, sex, and racial and national background. In Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 17, 163-197.
Recent work based on the American Time Use Survey (2011–2013) provided estimates matrices of “who provides care to whom” by age and sex within care activities in the U.S. In this paper, we build on that line of research by evaluating the strength of race, ethnicity, and national origin as proxy indicators of cultural propensities to engage in informal care. We find that compared to other groups, native-born African American men exhibit the lowest childcare participation and transfer rates, whereas foreign-born Hispanics of any race have significantly higher rates of daily participation in childcare. Moreover, the propensity to provide adult care is largely dependent on socio-economic characteristics and household structure. Our models indicate that neither race/ethnicity nor nativity are strong predictors of the observed differences when household composition and socio-economic factors are considered.
Hammer, Bernhard, Sonja Spitzer, Lili Vargha, and Tanja Istenič (2019). The gender dimension of intergenerational transfers in Europe. In The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 15, 1-10.
This paper analyses the gender dimension of intergenerational transfers in 15 European countries using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) data on age- and gender-specific transfers in 2010. We combine NTA data with information from life tables to derive measures of gender-specific net transfers over the whole life course and by life stages. The analysis distinguishes between public and private transfer flows, and accounts for transfers of services produced by unpaid work. Furthermore, we analyse public transfers in more detail by decomposing public old-age benefits into yearly averages and the number of years that individuals can expect to be net recipients. In all analysed countries, men contribute more to public transfers and finance a larger proportion of consumption needs of children, compared to women. By contrast, women provide most of the transfers of services produced by unpaid work, such as childcare and household work. While yearly net public benefits in old age are considerably smaller for women in most countries, total public benefits over the whole retirement period are higher for women due to their higher life expectancy.
Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). Macroeconomic impacts and policies in aging societies. In Aging societies: Policies and perspectives. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.
Will population aging lead to an economic crisis with tepid economic growth, generational inequality, unsustainable public finances, and overly burdened families? Answering these questions definitively requires data and analysis that have not been available in many countries. The evidence that is available, however, indicates that countries with moderate population aging can pursue policies that will capitalize on the benefits and minimize the costs of population aging. Countries with very low fertility and a severely aging population will likely face serious economic challenges.
Cet ouvrage propose un changement paradigmatique, après que les nombreuses politiques de développement ont manqué à la promesse de la prospérité partagée dans les pays en développement. Son ambition est d'accompagner efficacement les gouvernants par une simplification des méthodes, en leur proposant des outils adaptés à l'élaboration de politiques multisectorielles.
Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee (2019). Intergenerational transfers in the United States. International Centre on Aging (CENIE).
The United States is unique among high-income countries in its heavy reliance on assets and its low reliance on public transfers to fund old-age needs. Among 65-year-olds, asset-based reallocations support 86 percent of the lifecycle deficit, but the role of public transfers increases steadily with age.
Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). Demographic dividends: Policies based on an understanding of population dynamics will help countries achieve the SDGs. In SDGs: Transforming our world. 2019 edition. United Nations Association UK.
Taking advantage of the opportunities and responding to the challenges presented by the demographic transition require forward-looking policies that take account of population dynamics.... The success of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which pledges that no one will be left behind, is strongly bound to anticipating and planning for the effects of the demographic transition that will unfold during the SDG period.
Merette, Marcel, and Julien Navaux (2019), Population aging in Canada: What life cycle deficit age profiles are telling us about living standards. 'Canadian Public Policy/Analyse de politiques.' June:192-211.
This article assesses age profiles for labor income, consumption, and the lifecycle deficit in Canada from 1998 to 2013. it shows that the increase in the lifecycle deficit at young and old ages was not entirely compensated by an increase in the lifecycle surplus of working-age groups.
Narayana, M.R. (2019). Fiscal policy, demographic transition and public spending on education: New macroeconomic evidence for higher education from India. 'Journal of Education Finance.' 44(4): 405-22.
This paper establishes the empirical relationship between fiscal policy, the demographic transition, and public spending on education in India, with special reference to higher education. Overall results indicate that, other things being equal, the demographic transition results in (a) additional budgetary resources for higher education without any additional taxation, cut in expenditure benefits, or public debt, and (b) a decline in public education expenditure for all levels of education and for higher education in particular.
Nazarova, A.G., and A.V. Chernyavsky (2019). Aggregate Transfer Accounts for Russian Federation- framework for construction and analysis. Voprosy statistiki. 26 (4): 32-44. This article is also available at https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/879
Abstract: The article is devoted to methodological issues of building and analyzing the system of national transfer accounts (National Transfer Accounts - NTA). Based on NTA data, an analysis is made of changes in the age structure of the population, income distribution processes generated by the economy as a whole between generations. Therefore, it is used in a number of countries in building long-term (40 years or more) macroeconomic forecasts. When building NTA, indicators and categories of the System of National Accounts (SNA) are widely used. The central point in the formation of national transfer accounts is the determination of the balance of the economic life cycle for all age groups and the economy as a whole and the sources of its financing. The authors reviewed methodological and practical approaches to the compilation of three aggregated transfer accounts - the economic life cycle, the redistribution of public (state) and private resources and the analysis on their basis of socio-demographic processes for Russia. The macro analysis presented in the article is based on the data of statistics of national accounts and other information sources for the years 2003-2017. The main economic results of the analysis are the construction for Russia of a system of aggregated transfer accounts for 2003-2017, the determination of quantitative parameters of the balance of the life cycle of the Russian economy and qualitative changes in the sources of its financing. According to the results of the calculations of the authors, if in 2003-2010. the balance of the economic life cycle was positive (with the exception of the crisis of 2009), then in 2011-2016 on the contrary, it became negative and the state began to play an increasing role in financing its deficit.
Patxot, C., Michailidis, G. (2019)”Political viability of public pensions and education. An empirical application”, Applied Economics Letters: Volume 26 – Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1458188
Abstract:Public intergenerational transfers (IGTs) may emerge from the failure of private arrangements to provide optimal economic resources for the young and old. We investigate the political sustainability of the public system of IGTs by seeking to determine the outcome if the decision to reallocate economic resources per se was put to the vote. Exploiting the particular nature of the data from the National Transfer Accounts data in a political economy application in which generations cooperate under certain conditions, we show that most of the developed countries would vote in favour of a joint public education and pension system.
Zannella, Marina and De Rose, Alessandra (2019). Stability and change in family time transfers and workload inequality in Italian couples. Demographic Research, 40, 49-60. This article is also available at Demographic Research 2019.
Abstract: This article analyses changes from 2003 to 2014 in the magnitude and directions of family time (i.e., non-market) transfers and in the gender distribution of total work among Italian couples. The study draws on microdata from the 2003, 2009, and 2014 Italian Time Use Surveys. First, we follow the National Transfer Accounts methodology to estimate gender-specific age profiles of production and consumption of unpaid domestic work and of the related time transfers within families. Then, we focus on couples and build an indicator of workload inequality. Finally, we perform a multivariate statistical analysis to describe the characteristics of the partners associated with gender inequality in the division of work disfavouring women. Female non-market work decreased by an average of 36 minutes per day during the 2003–2014 period. However, women continue to be net donors of time transfers within the family and to perform the bulk of the work within the couple. Households where both partners do not work in the market or where only the woman has a market job show the highest levels of inequality, with women contributing to about 70% of the couples’ total working time. This study sheds light on the provision of informal welfare within Italian families by illustrating, with an age- and gender-specific focus, the recent evolution of time transfers. It also contributes to the literature on the gender division of work both by introducing a new indicator of the workload inequality between partners, and by providing further evidence of the persistence of gender asymmetries in Italian couples.
Abrigo, Michael R.M., Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park (2018). Human capital spending, inequality, and growth in middle-income Asia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 54(6): 1285-1303. This article is also available as Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper 529.
Abstract: Asia’s rapid population aging fortifies the case for strengthening human capital investments. Further, the experience of the newly industrialized economies suggests that human capital investments will be a vital ingredient of the transition from middle income to high income. Those investments can also affect equity and public finances. In this article, we use data from the National Transfer Accounts to empirically analyze the effect of human capital investment in Asian countries on economic growth, inequality, and fiscal balance. Our empirical evidence suggests that human capital investments have a positive effect on labor productivity and, hence, output. The positive effect is stronger for poorer households and, hence, beneficial for equity. We also find that such investments can generate sufficient tax revenues to improve the fiscal balance. Overall, our evidence points to a positive effect of human capital on growth, equity, and fiscal balance in Asia.
Cai, Yong, Feng, Wang, and Shen, Ke (2018). Fiscal Implications of Population Aging and Social Sector Expenditure in China. Data and Perspectives. 44(4): 811-831. This article is also available as Data and Perspectives 2018.
Introduction: Building on its economic boom and wealth accumulation over the past few decades, China has taken ambitious steps to revamp and rebuild the social programs, especially since the start of the new millennium. A new social benefit regime is now taking shape, including expanded healthcare coverage for both the rural and urban population, a new pension system that includes rural residents, and an increase in public education funding that provides free, nine-year basic education for all. Many of those efforts are to address the social ills which emerged in China’s economic liberalization, such as rising inequality and skyrocketing health care costs. But they are also responses to demographic pressures—accelerated aging among the most obvious and prominent ones. China has announced its intention to further expand social spending and improve the quality of its health care, pensions, and education programs. While such reforms are generally popular, there is also a strong wariness about their fiscal sustainability in the longer term.
Denisenko, Мikhail and Kozlov, Vladimir (2018). Generational accounts and demographic dividend in Russia. Demographic Review, 5(4), 6-35. This article is also available at Demographic Review 2018.
Abstract: The paper presents a modern methodology for estimating the impact of different age groups on the production and distribution of national income, called national transfer (generational) accounts. The human economic lifecycle is divided into stages defined by the ratio of labour income to consumption. In middle ages the gained income is higher than current consumption. The resulting surplus of resources is supposed to cover the income deficit in older and younger age groups. Estimates of the deficit or surplus at different ages are made for the Russian population for 2013 based on the results of age profiles taken from administrative sources and surveys. In the paper we also estimate the projected changes in the lifecycle deficit under different demographic development scenarios. Age profiles of labour income and consumption are used to calculate the effective economic support and the influence of demographic changes in Russia on economic growth rates in the near future.
Gal, Robert Ivan, Pieter Vanhuysse, and Lili Vargha (2018). Pro-elderly welfare states within child-oriented societies. Journal of European Public Policy. 25(6): 944-58. This article was republished as Chapter Nine in Marius R. Busemeyer, Caroline de la Porte, Julian L. Garritzmann, and Emmanuele Pavolini, eds. (2018) The future of the social investment state: Politics, policies, and outcomes. London: Routledge.
Abstract: Families and policies both are main vehicles of intergenerational transfers. Working-age people are net contributors; children and older persons net beneficiaries. However, there is an asymmetry in socialization. Working-age people pay taxes and social security contributions to institutionalize care for older persons as a generation, but invest private resources to raise their own children, often with large social returns. This results in asymmetric statistical visibility. Elderly transfers are near-fully observed in National Accounts; those to children much less. Analysing 10 European societies, we employ National Transfer Accounts to include public and private transfers, and National Time Transfer Accounts to value unpaid household labour. All three transfer channels combined, children receive more than twice as many per-capita resources as older persons. Europe is a continent of elderly-oriented welfare states and strongly child-oriented parents. Since children are ever-scarcer public goods in aging societies, why has investment in them not been socialized more?
Ha, Joonkyung, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2018). Population aging and the possibility of a middle-income trap in Asia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 54(6): 1225-38. This article is also available as Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper 536.
Abstract: We present three conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap and show that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy all of them. The conditions involve (1) the support ratio of workers to consumers has an impact on economic growth, (2) economic development accompanies more investment in human capital and lower fertility due to the quantity–quality trade-off, and (3) a current low level of fertility corresponds to very low support ratios for keeping up with frontier economies in the long run. Panel analysis for 178 countries shows that (1) and (2) are satisfied for Asia with higher elasticity than others. As for (3), we set up a dynamic model for simulations, showing that approximately two-third of Asia’s developing countries have an unsustainable level of support ratios, implying possibility of a middle-income trap due to future demographic headwinds.
Hammer, Bernhard, Tanja Istenič, and Lili Vargha. (2018). The Broken Generational Contract in Europe: Generous transfers to the elderly population, low investments in children. Intergenerational Justice Review 12, no. 1 (2018): 21-31. This article is also available at https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/57807/ssoar-igjr-2018-1-hammer_et_al-The_Broken_Generational_Contract_in.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y&lnkname=ssoar-igjr-2018-1-hammer_et_al-The_Broken_Generational_Contract_in.pdf
Abstract: Based on European National Transfer Accounts data from 2010, this paper quantifies and evaluates the balance of intergenerational transfer flows in 16 EU countries, including transfers in the form of unpaid household work. On average, the value of net transfers received by a child amounts to sixteen times the labour income of a full-time worker, and the net transfers received by an elderly person to six times the labour income of a full-time worker. Intergenerational transfers can be regarded as the reciprocal exchange between two generations: the size of the transfers to the child generation determines their potential to generate income and finance public transfers to the elderly population once they enter employment. We develop and calculate an indicator to analyse if there is a balance between transfers to children and transfers expected by the elderly population. The results indicate that in most of the analysed countries the human capital investments in children are far too low to finance the generous transfers to the elderly population in the future.
Hammer, Bernhard, Alexia Prskawetz, Róbert I. Gál, Lili Vargha, and Tanja Istenič. (2018). Human Capital Investment and the Sustainability of Public Transfer Systems Across Europe. Journal of Population Ageing 1-26. This article is also available at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12062-018-9224-8
Abstract: We evaluate the sustainability of the public transfer systems in 24 EU countries using a new cohort-specific indicator, the Human Capital Investment Gap (HKIG). The indicator measures for a certain cohort the difference between the public benefits in old age and the public contributions of the child generation. Calculating the HKIG for the cohort born in 1950, we show that in none of the analyzed countries the contributions of the child generation will be sufficient to finance the old age benefits of the 1950 cohort, given the age- and employment-specific transfer pattern observed in 2010. This result holds for most of the countries even when assuming very optimistic employment scenarios. The decomposition of the HKIG into its components indicates that the cross-country differences in the HKIG are mainly driven by the level of public contributions and benefits, while retirement age and employment rates play a comparably minor role.
Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee (2018). Intergenerational transfers and the older population. In National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. Future directions for the demography of aging: Proceedings of a workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, pp.187-214.
Introduction: Economic behavior varies in fundamental and important ways over the life cycle. Early, and again late in life, people consume more than they produce through their labor. In between these two phases of the life cycle, people produce more through their labor than they consume. The life cycle gives rise to institutions and economic systems that facilitate the reallocation of resources from one age to another. Intergenerational transfers constitute an essential part of the reallocation system, with governments and families playing distinctive roles. Families play a central role in child rearing with large intergenerational transfers of money and time from parents, and to some extent grandparents, to children. In some societies, intergenerational family transfers are also an important part of the old-age support system. Governments also are heavily involved in intergenerational transfers through public programs for education, health care, and pensions. Assets, in their varied forms including debt, provide another mechanism by which resources can be shifted from one age group to another. Young people can consume more than they produce by relying on credit—student loans or credit card debt, for example. Seniors can rely on wealth acquired.
Matsukura, Rikiya, Satoshi Shimizutani, Nahoko Mitsuyama, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Naohiro Ogawa (2018). Untapped work capacity among old persons and their potential contributions to the silver dividend in Japan. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing.
Abstract: In contemporary Japan, the utilization of healthy old persons in economic production is an urgent policy issue. We have measured the untapped work capacity of old persons using the microdata gathered in the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR), a longitudinal survey carried out on subjects age 50–75. Our results show a vast untapped work capacity of the Japanese elderly age 60–79, amounting to more than 11 million workers at present. We applied the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) framework to quantify the potential effect of this untapped work capacity on economic growth. The accumulated effect is substantial in the long term, generating a sizable so-called "silver dividend". We have also examined the issue of whether or not the use of untapped work capacity provided by old persons could affect the well-being of workers in other age groups. The regression results support the view that the substitutability between the elderly and the young is negligible, so that utilization of the potential work capacity of old persons is unlikely to pose any serious threat to the employment opportunities of the young in Japan.
Narayana, M.R. (2018). Accounting for growth effects of age structure transition through public education expenditure: New macroeconomic evidence from India. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance. 7(2): 174-211.
Abstract: This article quantifies the economic growth effects of the transition in population age structure associated with public education expenditure. Using the National Transfer Accounts’ (NTA) First Demographic Dividend (FDD) model, growth effects are measured as the impact of current public education expenditure on the economic support ratio (ESR) and on labour productivity. The age-structure transition reduces the education dependency ratio (EDR) at all levels of education, but the greatest impact is in elementary education through a long-term decline in enrolment even when maintaining the current gross primary enrolment ratio at close to 100 percent. The potential savings from enrolment decline at the primary level could provide resources to finance the investment requirements for secondary and higher education. If current public education spending is reallocated toward secondary and higher education, the growth effects are shown to be positive and high and to last up to 2050, explained largely by increases in labour productivity. These results and implications are of general relevance for other developing countries in South Asia and elsewhere in the world.
Narayana, M.R. (2018). Organizing old age pensions for India’s unorganized workers: A case study of a sector-driven approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.04.001.
Abstract: About 88 percent of India’s total labor force is composed of informal (officially labeled “unorganized”) workers. As many as 388 million such workers lack old-age income security by way of a pension system. The Atal Pension Yojana (APY) is the latest contributory, national-level old-age pension scheme for unorganized workers, with an entry age of 18–40 years. In other words, all current unorganized workers above the age of 40 are excluded. How could a national pension system viably guarantee equal pension benefits to all current unorganized workers? This paper considers how such a system might work by offering a case study of a non-contributory pension scheme for building and other construction workers in Karnataka State, India. The results indicate that this state-level pension scheme, fully funded by sector-specific receipts, is financially viable and sustainable with high levels of coverage and adequacy. Additional analyses outline the scenarios under which pension benefits could be extended to all informal workers in the sector studied.
Prskawetz, Alexia, and Bernhard Hammer. (2018). Does education matter?-economic dependency ratios by education. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 16 (2018): 1-24. This article is also available at https://www.austriaca.at/0xc1aa5576%200x003a1454.pdf
Abstract: When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant agespecific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality, medium fertility and medium migration in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050. We then compare how the dependency ratio would differ if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.
Sánchez-Romero, M., G. Abio, C. Patxot and G. Souto (2018). “Contribution of demography to economic growth”. SERIEs. Journal of the Spanish Economic Association: vol 9(1), pags 27-64 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-017-0164-y.
From 1850 to 2000, in Western European countries life expectancy rose from 30–40 to 80 years and the average number of children per woman fell from 4 to 5 children to slightly more than one. To gauge the economic consequences of these demographic trends, we implement an overlapping generations model with heterogeneity by level of education in which individuals optimally decide their consumption of market- and home-produced goods as well as the time spent on paid and unpaid work. We find that around 17% of the observed increase in per-capita income growth from 1850 to 2000 was due to the demographic transition. Around 50% of the demographic contribution is explained by the increase in the average productivity per worker (productivity component), which arises from the change in the population’s age structure and the rise in households’ saving rate. The remaining 50% is explained by the higher growth rate of workers relative to the total population (translation component). >>>
Zannella, Marina, Bernhard Hammer, Alexia Prskawetz, and Jože Sambt. (2018). A Quantitative Assessment of the Rush Hour of Life in Austria, Italy and Slovenia. European Journal of Population 1-26. This article is also available at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10680-018-9502-4
Abstract: This article builds on time use data to explore cross-country differences between Austria, Italy and Slovenia in unpaid labour and its implications in terms of gender distribution of total work. A contribution of this paper is to measure the ‘rush hour of life’ (RHOL) based on age spans in which individuals’ working time (including paid and unpaid work) exceeds their free time. In total, men and women work similar hours in Austria, whereas Italy and Slovenia show a gender gap with women working an average of approximately 50 min more per day during prime working ages. The different compositions and loads of total work are reflected in cross-country variations of the length and intensity of the RHOL, with Slovenian women reporting, on average, the larger squeeze of time. However, breadwinner arrangements differ considerably among the three countries, which can affect the amounts of work and free time available for men and even more so for women. Therefore, we further extend our analysis by developing a regression model to quantitatively assess the association between couples’ working arrangements and levels of the RHOL indicator for men and women. Results indicate a dual burden for women in dual-earner couples, squeezing out their free time. By contrast, women in male-breadwinner arrangements report the lowest amounts of total work. Breadwinner models show no significant relation to male levels of work and free time, with the main exception of Italy where men face higher RHOL in full-time employed couples.
Abio, G., C. Patxot, E. Rentería and G. Souto (2017).”Intergenerational transfers in Spain: The role of education”, Review of Public Economics, vol. 223(4) pag. 101-130. https://www.ief.es/docs/destacados/publicaciones/revistas/hpe/223_Art4.pdf
This paper shows the estimates of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Spain in 2006 disaggregated by education level. Overall, our results indicate that, besides age population composition, education level has a big impact on the economic behavior of households and, hence, on the aggregate economy. Educated households tend to participate more and longer in the labor market, to produce more and, consequently, to consume more. As differences in consumption are lower than in labor income, they are able to contribute to the public system with higher taxes and contributions, and they depend less on public transfers over their lifecycle. Therefore, education seems to be crucial to sustain the welfare state in an ageing society.
d'Albis, Hippolyte, and Ikpidi Badji (2017). Intergenerational inequalities in standards of living in France. Economie et Statistique/Economics and Statistics. 491-492:71-92. Albis_Badji_2017
Abstract: In this article, the effects of age (or lifecycle) and generation on the standard of living are estimated using a pseudo‑panel developed from the various editions of the French Household Expenditure Survey (Budget de famille ‑ BdF) between 1979 and 2011. The standard of living of households is calculated using the disposable income or the private consumption per consumption unit, including and excluding expenditure on housing and imputed rent. Using the identification strategy developed by Deaton and Paxson (1994) for Age‑Period‑Cohort (APC) models produces two main results. Firstly, the standard of living increases significantly with age from 25 to 64 years old. For example, consumption is 35% greater for 50‑54 year olds than for 25‑29 year olds. From 65 years old, changes depend on the living standard indicator considered. Furthermore, the standard of living of the baby boom generations is higher than generations born before the Second World War, but lower than or equal to the generations that follow. For example, the consumption of the cohort born in 1946 is 40% higher than the cohort born in 1926, but 20% lower than the cohort born in 1976. Considering all cohorts born between 1901 and 1979, no generation has been less fortunate than its ancestors. Discussion of these results demonstrates their robustness, particularly with regard to the results of other identification strategies, including the Age‑Period‑Cohort‑Detrended (APCD) method, which removes the linear trend from variables, and an original strategy, the Life Expectancy‑Period‑Cohort method (LEPC) which replaces the age variable with the life expectancy at each age. It shows the significance of economic growth in increasing the standard of living of generations and confirms that no generation has consumed less than the generations preceding it.
d'Albis, Hippolyte, and Ikpidi Badji (2017). Les inégalités de niveaux de vie entre les générations en France. Economie et Statistique/Economics and Statistics. 491-492:77-99 plus on-line appendices. Albis_Badji_2017b
Abstract: Dans cet article, les effets de l’âge (ou du cycle de vie) et de génération sur le niveau de vie sont estimés à partir d’un pseudo‑panel construit avec les différentes éditions de l’enquête Budget de famille entre 1979 et 2011. Le niveau de vie des ménages est apprécié avec le revenu disponible ou la consommation privée par unité de consommation, en isolant ou non les dépenses de logement et les loyers implicites. En s’appuyant sur la stratégie d’identification développée par Deaton et Paxson (1994) pour les modèles âge‑période‑cohorte (APC), deux principaux résultats sont mis en évidence. Tout d’abord, le niveau de vie augmente fortement avec l’âge, de 25 à 64 ans. Par exemple, la consommation des 50‑54 ans est supérieure de 35 % à celle des 25‑29 ans. À partir de 65 ans, l’évolution dépend de l’indicateur de niveau de vie considéré. Par ailleurs, le niveau de vie des générations du baby‑boom est supérieur à celui des générations nées avant‑guerre mais inférieur ou égal à celui des générations qui les suivent. Par exemple, la consommation de la cohorte née en 1946 est de 40 % supérieure à celle de la cohort née en 1926 mais de 20 % inférieure à celle de la cohorte née en 1976. Si l’on prend l’ensemble des cohortes nées entre 1901 et 1979, aucune génération n’a été désavantagée par rapport à ses aînées. La discussion de ces résultats, notamment au regard de ceux issus d’autres strategies d’identification ‒ la méthode âge‑période‑cohorte‑détendancialisé (APCD) qui retire une tendance linéaire aux variables et une stratégie originale, la méthode espérance de vie‑période‑cohorte (EPC) qui remplace la variable d’âge par l’espérance de vie à chaque âge – souligne leur robustesse. Elle révèle l’importance de la croissance économique dans l’élévation du niveau de vie des générations et confirme qu’aucune génération n’a eu une consommation inférieure à celle des générations qui l’ont précédé.
d'Albis, Hippolyte, Carole Bonnet, Julien Navaux, Jacques Pelletan, et Francois-Charles Wolff (2017). Le déficit de cycle de vie en France: Une évaluation pour la période 1979-2011. Economie et Statistique/Economics and Statistics. 491-492:51-75 with online appendices. Albis_etal_2017b
Abstract: Les Comptes de transferts nationaux mesurent la manière dont les individus produisent, consomment, épargnent et partagent les ressources à chaque âge. Ils permettent d’identifier les périodes pendant lesquelles la consommation privée et publique (éducation, santé, …) n’est pas financée par les revenus du travail, avant d’identifier les transferts entre les âges qui permettent de la financer. Cet article présente les profils individuels de consommation et de revenus du travail par âge pour la France, établis à partir de cette méthode et leur évolution entre 1979 et 2011. Les profils sont aussi calculés au niveau agrégé, soulignant l’importance des évolutions des structures démographiques. On reconstitue également des trajectoires partielles de cohortes, donnant ainsi une lecture générationnelle des évolutions. En 2011, la consommation des plus âgés est plus élevée que celle des jeunes, ce qui n’était pas le cas en 1979. La hausse de la consommation à chaque âge, observée de génération en génération, s’est ralentie à partir de la cohorte née en 1950. L’éventail des âges auxquels les revenus du travail sont perçus s’est réduit, tandis que l’âge auquel le revenu du travail atteint son niveau le plus élevé se déplaçait de 36 à 46 ans au fil des années. La progression des revenus du travail à chaque âge, très visible des générations 1930 à 1950, semble s’être momentanément interrompue entre les générations 1950 et 1960, du moins en début de vie active. Elle reprend à partir des générations 1970, mais de manière moins prononcée. En 2011, les âges auxquels la consommation excède les revenus du travail, ce qui correspond à un déficit, s’étendent de 0 à 24 ans et de 59 à 82 ans. Avec la hausse de l’espérance de vie en France, le nombre d’années en situation de déficit aux âges élevés a considérablement augmenté, de 14 à 24 années entre 1979 et 2011. Enfin, les profils de revenus du travail et de consommation pour la France sont très similaires à ceux des pays européens.
d'Albis, Hippolyte, Carole Bonnet, Julien Navaux, Jacques Pelletan, and Francois-Charles Wolff (2017). Lifecycle deficit in France: An assessment for the period 1979-2011. Economie et Statistique/Economics and Statistics. 491-492:47-70. Albis_etal_2017
Abstract: National Transfer Accounts (NTA) measure the way in which individuals produce, consume, save, and share resources at each age. They make it possible to identify the periods for which private and public consumption (education, healthcare, etc.) are not funded by labour income, before identifying the transfers between the ages that enable such consumption to be funded. This article presents individual age profiles of consumption and labour income in France, as established using that method, and how they changed from 1979 to 2011. The profiles are also calculated at aggregate age level, highlighting the importance of changes in the demographic structures over time. We also reconstruct partial cohort trajectories, thereby providing a generational reading of the changes. In 2011, consumption by old people was higher than consumption by young people, which was not the case in 1979. The rise in consumption at each age, observed generation on generation, slowed down as from the cohort born in 1950. The range of ages at which labour incomes are received has narrowed, while the age at which labour income reaches its highest level has shifted from 36 to 46 over the years. The increase in labour incomes, observed at each age in the generations from 1930 to 1950, seems to have been interrupted momentarily between the 1950 and 1960 generations, at least at the beginning of working life. It resumed in the generations from 1970 onwards, but to a less pronounced extent. In 2011, the ages at which consumption exceeded labour income, corresponding to a deficit, ran from 0 to 24 and from 59 to 82. With the rise in life expectancy in France, the number of years in a deficit situation at high ages has increased considerably, going from 14 to 24 years between 1979 and 2011. Finally, the labour income and consumption profiles for France are very similar to those of the other European countries.
Dramani, Latif, and Oga, Idossou Jean-Bapiste (2017). Understanding Demographic Dividends in Africa: the NTA approach. Journal of Demographic Economics. doi:10.1017/dem.2016.30.
Ladusingh, Laishram, and Barsharani Maharana (2017). How sustainable is the familial support of elderly in Asia? Journal of Population Ageing. DOI 10.1007/s12062-017-9192-4.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2017). Cost of Aging. Finance & Development [quarterly publication of the International Monetary Fund]. 54(1).
Loichinger, Elke, Bernhard Hammer, Alexia Prskawetz, Michael Freiberger, and Joze Sambt (2017). Quantifying economic dependency. European Journal of Population. 33(3): 351-80.
Abstract: This paper compares several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries, taking into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also differences in age-specific economic behavior such as labor market activity, income, and consumption, as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behavior and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Cross-country differences in economic dependency are driven by differences in age-specific economic behavior and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might effectively mitigate the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.
Mason, Andrew, Ronald Lee, Michael Abrigo, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2017). Support Ratios and Demographic Dividends: Estimates for the World. Technical Paper No. 2017/1. New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. UN Technical Papers
Abstract: New estimates of demographic dividends for 166 countries around the world are now available. The estimates were constructed in cooperation with the United Nations Population Division in conjunction with the 50th United Nations Commission on Population and Development. More information including downloadable data is available here: Dividend Data
Mason, Carl N., and Timothy Miller (2017). International projections of age-specific healthcare consumption: 2015–2060. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. April 21, 2017. doi:10.1016/j.jeoa.2017.04.003.
Abstract: We construct a demographically informed model of age specific healthcare consumption for 36 countries of widely varying income and wealth, in the National Transfer Accounts project. We project healthcare consumption to 2060 using a modified Lee-Carter technique. In our modification, GDP per capita plays the role of time in explaining changes in the age-pattern of health consumption as countries become wealthier. We find that rising wealth mainly affects health consumption at older ages. The main advantage of the model is its simplicity and its reduced reliance on expert judgment about future trends. Unlike many health projections, we find that population aging is an important driver of future health consumption. Our model predicts rapid increases in healthcare consumption during the rapid phase of population aging but more modest increases thereafter once the great transformation to aged societies is complete.
Narayana, M.R. (2017). Analysing the economic effects of age structure transition: Towards a new methodology. In Knowing the Social World: Challenges and Responses, edited by N. Jayaram. Hyderabad: Orient Blackswan, pp.39-63.
Abstract: This chapter explores the relevance and applicability of NTA methodology for India. Relevance is explored in the context of India’s economic and social structure. Applicability is explored by data requirements, challenges and limitations. In this context, the chapter focuses on research processes, which eventually convert the data challenges into fresh research opportunities and derive newer professional results and policy implications on economic effects of India’s age structure transition. In particular, two applications are analysed to provide evidence for usefulness of NTA: (a) calculation of economic lifecycle deficit/surplus across age groups by young, youth, working and elderly; and (b) estimation of growth effects of age structure transition through demographic dividends. However, research on India’s NTA is evolving and the results in this chapter have a great scope for improvements in future.
Narayana, M.R. (2017). Universal social pension for elderly individuals in India: Public expenditure requirements and fiscal sustainability. Indian Growth and Development Review. 10(2):89-116. https://doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-07-2017-0047
Abstract: Public expenditure requirements for the universal social pension scheme (USPS) scenarios are remarkably higher than current expenditure on the Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS). Short-term analyses offer economic justifications for an increase in pension benefits either by a single adjustment factor or combined adjustment factors. Long-term analyses show that the IGNOAPS and proposed USPS scenarios are fiscally sustainable but sensitive to five parameters (productivity growth, inflation rate, discount rate, income elasticity public pension expenditure and income elasticity of health expenditure).
Rice, James M., Jeromey B. Temple, and Peter F. McDonald (2017). Private and public consumption across generations in Australia. Australasian Journal on Ageing. 36(4): 279-285. Rice_Temple_McDonald_PrivatePublicC_2017
Abstract: Australian NTA estimates of consumption were used to investigate disparities in consumption between people of different ages and generations in Australia between 1981–1982 and 2009–2010. There is a clear patterning of consumption by age, with the distribution by age of consumption funded by the private sector being very different to that of consumption funded by the public sector. Australians have achieved notable equality in total consumption among people between the ages of 20 and 75 years. Substantial disparities exist, however, between different generations, with earlier generations experiencing lower levels of total consumption in real terms at particular ages than later generations. An accurate picture of intergenerational equity in consumption requires consideration of both cohorts and cross sections, as well as consumption funded by both the public and the private sectors.
Sánchez-Romero, M., G. Abio, C. Patxot and G. Souto (2017). “The Welfare State and the Demographic Dividends”, Demographic Research, 36 – 48, 1453-1490. https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol36/48/default.htm
The demographic transition experienced by developed countries produces initial positive effects on economic growth ‒ the first demographic dividend ‒ that can be extended into a second demographic dividend if baby boomers’ savings increase capital accumulation. Nevertheless, aging might reverse this process if dissaving of elderly baby boomers and the pressure on the pay-as-you-go financed welfare state reduce savings and capital. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which demographic dividends in Spain provide an opportunity for the reform of the welfare state system for an aging population. To that end we decompose demographic dividends using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic demography and public transfers from the National Transfer Accounts database. This allows us to capture the endogenous evolution of savings and capital accumulation and, hence, the second demographic dividend.
Temple, Jeromey B., Peter F. McDonald, and James Mahmud Rice (2017). Net assets available at age of death in Australia: An extension of the National Transfer Accounts methodology. Population Review. 56(2):78-101. Temple_McDonald_Rice_NetAssets_2017
Abstract: Population ageing through much of the developed world presents the opportunity for a massive transfer of wealth across generations. One important and understudied intergenerational transfer in Australia occurs at or near death through inheritance or inter vivo transfers. In Australia, the number of deaths is projected to increase 13% in 10 years and 95% by mid-century. With this significant change on the horizon, little academic interest has focused on the value of assets at age of death in Australia. In this report, we utilise the National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology to examine the per capita and aggregate value of net assets available at age of death in Australia for the years 2003–04 and 2009–10. We take a substantial step in the development of a wealth transfer account within the National Transfer Account methodology by providing a procedure to estimate economy wide levels of assets and liabilities. We show that the assets available at age of death in Australia are very significant: between 60 and 70 billion Australian dollars in 2003–04 and 2009–10. The majority of the asset value was tied up in property, with about three quarters of total average assets held in property by those dying at ages 65 and over. Using simulations, we also illustrate, that relative to the past, assets are now transferred much later in life because of the extended delay of death. We conclude with a discussion about government policies that target elder abuse, and policies that constrain desired familial transfers.
Temple, Jeremey B., James Mahmud Rice, and Peter F. McDonald (2017). Mature age labour force participation and the life cycle deficit in Australia: 1981-82 to 2009-10. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 10: 21-33. Temple_Rice_McDonald_MatureAge_2017
Abstract: With inexorable population ageing, successive Australian governments have sought to implement policies, on both the production and consumption side, that place a greater onus on older citizens to be financially self-sufficient as a means of offsetting costs due to ageing. Over the previous 30 years, a time of considerable labour market growth and policy change, mature age labour force participation increased significantly in Australia. In this paper, we utilise the National Transfer Accounts methodology to examine the impact that the increases in mature age labour force participation have had on the Life Cycle Deficit – the difference between what age groups consume and what they produce through their own labour. We expected and found that the age entering the life cycle deficit is strongly influenced by changing patterns of mature age labour force participation. Both cross-sectional and cohort analyses show that over this 30 year time horizon, the ages at which the life cycle deficit moves from positive to negative territory and vice versa have gradually increased over time. The growth in mature age labour force participation since the turn of this century has led to large increases in mature age labour income, the most important effect of which appears to have been a substantial increase in private saving by mature age Australians. Implications of a recent slowing in mature age labour force participation in Australia are discussed.
Temple, Jeromey B., James M. Rice, and Peter F. McDonald (2017). Ageing and the economic life cycle: The National Transfer Accounts approach. Australasian Journal on Ageing. 36(4): 271-278. Temple_Rice_McDonald_Ageing_2017
Abstract: The objective of this study was to illustrate the use of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for understanding ageing and the economic life cycle in Australia. The NTA methodology wa applied utilising a range of unit record, demographic and administrative data sets from 1981 to 2010. During early and later life, total consumption (public and private) is greater than labour income. On a time series and cohort basis, we show that each successive generation has improved their level of well-being (as measured by consumption) relative to the previous years or previous cohorts from 1981 to 1982 onwards. We also show a substantial increase in labour income earned by mature age workers over this period. International comparisons show Australia to have consumption and labour income age profiles very similar to those of Canada but dissimilar to many other countries, driven by differences in demographic and policy settings. The NTA approach provides a powerful framework to track differences in the economic life cycle across age groups, across time, across cohorts, and across countries.
Vargha, Lili, Robert Ivan Gal, and Michele O. Crosby-Nagy (2017). Household production and consumption over the life cycle: National Time Transfer Accounts in 14 European countries]. Demographic Research. 36(32): 905-44. [Available online http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol36/32/]
Zannella, Marina (2017). The Economic Lifecycle, Gender and Intergenerational Support: National Transfer Accounts for Italy. Springer. This bookis also available at Springer 2017.In this monograph, the NTA methodological andconceptual framework is employed to obtain a picture of age- and gender-relatedeconomic interactions in Italy during 2008.
D'Albis, Hippolyte, Carole Bonnet, Julien Navaux, Jacques Pelletan, and Anne Solaz (2016). Travail rémunéré et travail domestique: Une évaluation monétaire de la contribution des femmes et des hommes à l'activité économique depuis 30 ans. Revue de l'OFCE. 149:101-130. Albis_etal_2016
Abstract: À l’aide des Comptes de transferts nationaux, cet article quantifie les évolutions par âge et par sexe de la production domestique et des revenus du travail rémunéré en France sur la période 1985-2010. Il montre que si la participation plus importante des femmes au marché du travail a permis d'accroître leur contribution dans les revenus du travail rémunéré, leur contribution à la « production globale », définie comme la somme des revenus du travail rémunéré et de la production domestique « monétisée » au salaire minimum, a peu augmenté sur la période (passant de 43 % à 46 % entre 1985 et 2010 pour les femmes de 25 à 55 ans). Cette stabilité s'explique par les évolutions relatives des temps de travail rémunéré et domestique des femmes et des hommes. Les heures annuelles sur le marché du travail ont baissé pour les deux sexes, mais cette tendance à la baisse a été en partie compensée pour les femmes par une participation accrue. Parallèlement, ces dernières se sont massivement désengagées de la sphère domestique, les hommes n'ayant modifié que marginalement leur implication domestique. Le temps de travail total des femmes a ainsi plus baissé que celui des hommes tout en lui demeurant supérieur. Néanmoins, une heure de production domestique étant par hypothèse moins « valorisée » qu'une heure de travail rémunéré, ces évolutions n'ont finalement pas modifié la contribution des femmes à la « production globale.
Dramani, Latif (2016). ''Economie générationnelle et dividende démographique: Éléments de diagnostic au Senegal.'' Paris: L'Harmattan. Tome 1.
Dramani, Latif (2016). ''Economie générationnelle et dividende démographique: Théorie et applications au Senegal.'' Paris: L'Harmattan. Tome 2.
Editor's note: La théorie de l’économie intergénérationnelle, en réunissant plusieurs disciplines, permet de comprendre l’impact sur l’économie des questions démographiques (fécondité, vieillissement, etc.) et sociologiques (éducation, travail, etc.). Dans cet ouvrage, l’auteur s’attache à poser le diagnostic des dynamiques de pauvreté au Sénégal ainsi que celui de la situation de l’emploi, de la santé ou de l'éducation.
Georges, Patrick, and Aylin Seçkin (2016). From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis. Economic Modelling. 56:79-93. Available online
Abstract: We build an overlapping generation (OLG) general equilibrium model of Turkey with survival rates and endogenous labour supply to simulate the economic, fiscal, welfare, and intergenerational redistribution impacts of the medium and high fertility demographic scenarios projected by the United Nations. We assume that the high fertility variant is a realistic demographic proxy for pro-natalist policies in Turkey. Our results show that on a purely economic basis, a higher fertility scenario in Turkey appears open to criticisms as it cannot offset the social security pressures of ageing, and it also involves intergenerational welfare redistributions so that current young adults are unlikely to endorse natalist rhetoric and policies.
Jiménez-Fontana, Pamela. (2016) Retos para materializar el dividendo de género: patrones de uso de tiempo en Costa Rica. Revista Población y Salud en Mesoamérica. Available online.
Khondker, B.H. and M.M. Rahman (2016). Will Bangladesh miss out on first demographic dividend? in S. Raihan (ed.), SANEM Thinking Aloud. 2(8): 2.
First paragraph: Bangladesh has entered the window of population dividend opportunities from 1991 onward as the dependency ratio decreased. However, the expressed time of the window of opportunities is not bolstered by observational confirmation. The absence of certain proof on the period and extent of the demographic dividend is a gap policymakers must address when setting needs for human resource and capital investment to gather the economic advantages of the demographic move. Applying the methodology of National Transfer Accounts (NTA), this study is an endeavor to provide some observational evidence so as to evaluate the demographic benefit for Bangladesh and to explore the conditions to appreciate it.
Lee, Ronald (2016). Macroeconomics, aging and growth. In Handbook of the Economics of Population Ageing, edited by John Piggott and Alan Woodland. Elsevier, pp.59-118. [Prepublication version is NBER Working Paper w22310, June, 2016.]
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2016). Conséquences macroéconomiques du vieillissement de la population. Revue D’economie Financiere. 122(Special Issue on Finance and Demography, edited by Hippolyte d'Albis): 83-101.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Q. Chen (2016). The economic impact of demographic change in China and India. In Policy Challenges from Demographic Change in China and India, edited by K. Eggleston. Stanford: Stanford University, pp. 11-31.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, Naohiro Ogawa, and R. Matsukura (2016). Japan’s pension reform, labor market responses and demographic dividend. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 8:67-75.
Mason, Andrew, Ronald Lee, and Jennifer Xue Jiang (2016). Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 7:106-22. Available online.
Abstract: This article provides new evidence on the development effects of changes in population age structure and human and physical capital by developing and employing a more comprehensive model of demographic dividends. In addition, we extend earlier analysis about the quantity-quality tradeoff using newly available NTA data for 39 countries. The analysis provides estimates of the first and second demographic dividends and how they are affected by the speed of fertility decline. The timing of the effects is documented, and the relative importance of investment in physical and human capital is assessed.
Narayana, Muttur Ranganathan (2016). India's proposed universal health coverage policy: Evidence for age structure transition effect and fiscal sustainability. Applied Health Economics and Health Policy. Published online 19 August 2016
Rentería, Elisenda, Guadalupe Souto, Ivan Mejía-Guevara, and Concepció Patxot (2016). The effect of education on the demographic dividend. Population and Development Review. 42(4): 651-71. Available online.
Abstract: The impact of population age structure on economic growth has been studied in recent decades using different methods to estimate the so-called demographic dividend. Education has also been pointed out as a key factor in economic growth. We propose a decomposition of the demographic dividend, into age and education effects, illustrated by an application to Mexico and Spain over the period 1970-2100. Our results confirm the role of population age structure in the demographic dividend, but also reveal that education attainment can be even more crucial. Moreover, we find that the impact of both age structure and education on economic growth depends to a great extent on the specific consumption and labor income age profiles in each country.
Rentería, Elisenda, Rosario Scandurra, Guadalupe Souto, and Concepció Patxot (2016). Intergenerational money and time transfers by gender in Spain: Who are the actual dependents? Demographic Research. 34:689-704. Available online.
Abstract: The analysis of intergenerational transfers can shed light on the interaction between population age structure and welfare. A thorough examination of this issue in Spain, including consideration of both monetary (market) and time (non-market) transfers, shows higher labor income for men with respect to women throughout the age profile. Nevertheless, women spend more hours in total (market and non-market activities) than men. This division drives an asymmetry in private transfers. While men are net donors of money to other age groups during their working life, women are net donors of time to other household members (mainly children and their partners) over their lives. The results suggest that the public sector in Spain should reinforce policies that take into account women’s contribution to the welfare of other population groups and call for policies that reconcile professional and family obligations.
Sambt, Jože, Gretchen Donehower, and Miroslav Verbič (2016). Incorporating household production into the National Transfer Accounts for Slovenia. Post-Communist Economies. 28(2): 249-67. Available online.
Abstract: The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) have recently been developed to measure economic flows across age groups. In this article, we extend the NTA for Slovenia by including the value of unpaid household production. Based on time-use data, we discover that people in Slovenia spent even more time on household production than on paid work, which emphasizes the necessity of including household production in the NTA analysis. We find that there are large net transfers of household production flowing from adults to children, and to a lesser extent to the elderly. Females provide much more unpaid production and total productive work than males. In addition, they face a much more intensive ‘rush hour of life’ than males. We expect that similar patterns may be found in other post-communist countries where equalizing labor force participation by gender was central to the communist agenda, but where no similar efforts were undertaken to equalize household work burdens.
D'Albis, Hippolyte, and Dalal Moosa (2015). Generational economics and the National Transfer Accounts. Journal of Demographic Economics. 81:409-441. Albis_Moosa_2015
Abstract: This article provides a comprehensive picture of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA), a project that aims at measuring how people produce, consume, save, and share economic resources at every age. It stands today with a unique dataset that includes 47 countries from around the world, permitting a comparative understanding of economic flows within and between generations and over time.
d’Albis, Hippolyte, Carole Bonnet, Julien Navaux, Jacques Pelletan, Hector Toubon, and François-Charles Wolff (2015). The lifecycle deficit in France, 1979–2005. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 79-85. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Abstract: We use the National Transfer Accounts methodology to calculate the lifecycle deficit in France for the years 1979–2005. During this period, consumption profiles were roughly constant over age, while labor income profiles shifted to higher ages. The share of the aggregate lifecycle deficit in GDP rose sharply in the 1980s due to an increase in the mean age of the population. In contrast, the per capita shares of the lifecycle deficit attributed to the population under 20 and over 60 varied little during this period, even though the relative weights of these two age-segments has shifted continuously in favor of the latter.
Gál, Róbert I., Endre Szabó, and Lili Vargha (2015). The age-profile of invisible transfers: The true size of asymmetry in inter-age reallocations. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 98-104. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Hammer, Bernhard, Alexia Prskawetz, and Inga Freund (2015). Production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in Europe: A cross-country comparison. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 86-97. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Jiménez-Fontana, Pamela (2015). Analysis of non-remunerated production in Costa Rica. The Journal of Economics of Aging. 5:45-53. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001. Available online.
Lai, Nicole Mun Sim, and An-Chi Tung (2015). Who supports the elderly? The changing economic lifecycle reallocation in Taiwan, 1985 and 2005. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 63-68. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Lee, Ronald Lee (2015). How population aging affects the macroeconomy. In Revaluating Labor Market Dynamics [a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at Jackson Hole, Wyoming]. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp.261-83.
Lee, Ronald (2015). Population aging and the changing economic life cycle: A global perspective.” In Challenges of Aging: Retirement, Pensions, and Intergenerational Justice, edited by Cornelius Torp. Palgrave.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2015). Are current tax and spending regimes sustainable in developing Asia? In Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and Inclusive Growth in Asia, edited by D. Park, S-H Lee, and M. Lee. Oxford: Routledge, pp. 202-34.
Mejía-Guevara, Iván (2015). Economic inequality and intergenerational transfers: Evidence from Mexico. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 23-32. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Narayana, M.R. (2015). Age structure transition, population ageing and economic growth: New evidence and implications for India. Chapter 5 in K.V. Ramaswamy (ed.), Labour, employment and economic growth in India. Cambridge University Press (New Delhi): pp.127-152.
Narayana, M.R. (2015) Public Expenditure Requirements and Financing Options for a National Level Universal Old Age Pension Scheme in India. BKPAI Working Paper Series II: No.6, December. New Delhi: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). http://india.unfpa.org/sites/asiapacific/files/pub-pdf/BKPAI%20-%20Series%20II%2C%20Working%20Paper-6_0.pdf.
Oosthuizen, Morné J. (2015). Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 14-22. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Patxot, Concepció, Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason (2015). Introduction. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 1-6. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Patxot, Concepció, Elisenda Rentería, and Guadalupe Souto (2015). Can we keep the pre-crisis living standards? An analysis based on NTA profiles in Spain. Available online Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy. 5:54-62. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
In the context of the deep economic crisis affecting most western countries, but specially Southern Europe, some voices have claimed that Spaniards had been living beyond their means. In this paper, we shed some light on this issue by comparing National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for 2008 and 2000. We conclude that the levels of labor income and consumption by age observed in 2008 are not sustainable in the coming decades.
Racelis, Rachel H., Michael R.M. Abrigo, and J.M. Ian Salas (2015). Financing consumption over the lifecycle and overseas workers’ remittances: Findings from the 1999 and 2007 Philippine National Transfer Accounts. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 69-78. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Shen, K., and Sang-Hyop Lee (2015). “Benefit incidence of public transfers: Evidences from China. In Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and Inclusive Growth in Asia, edited by D. Park, S-H Lee, and M. Lee. Oxford: Routledge, pp. 136-66.
Vogt, Tobias C., and Fanny A. Kluge (2015). Can public spending reduce mortality disparities? Findings from East Germany after reunification. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 7-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Zannella, Marina (2015). Reallocation of resources between generations and genders in the market and non-market economy. The case of Italy. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Special Issue on Exploring the Generational Economy: 33-44. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.04.001.
Lee, Ronald (2014). Comment on Yong Cai, Feng Wang, Ding Li, Xiwei Wu, Ke Shen “China's Age of Abundance: When Might it Run Out.” The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. DOI 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.10.004.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2014). National Transfer Accounts: An overview. Policy in Focus. 30(December, Special Issue on National Transfer Accounts and Generational Flows) 4-5.
Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and members of the NTA network (2014). Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption. Science Oct. 10 346(6206): 229-34. Full text and supplementary material.
Abstract: Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. While low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Q. Chen (2014). The economic support system and changing age structure in China. In Analyzing China's Population, edited by B. Gu and I. Attane. Berlin: Springer. pp. 255-69.
Narayana, M.R. (2014). India's Age Structure Transition, Sectoral Labor Productivities, and Economic Growth: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts. Population Research and Policy Review, published online: 11 September 2014.
Narayana, M.R. (2014). Impact of population ageing on sustainability of India's current fiscal policies: A Generational Accounting approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, published online: 6 January 2014. ##
Ogawa, Naohiro, Andrew Mason, et al. (2014). Very low fertility and the high costs of children and the elderly in East Asia. In N. Ogawa and I. H. Shah, eds. Low fertility and reproductive health in East Asia. New York: Springer 31-58.
Olivera Angulo, Javier (2014). El déficit del ciclo de vida en el Perú. Una estimación basada en el sistema de cuentas nacionales de transferencias. [The Life-Cycle Deficit in Peru: An Estimation with NTA] Notas de Población 98(July): 75-102. Available online.
Tovar, J. & Urdinola, B.P. (2014).“Inequality in National Inter-Generational Transfers:Evidence from Colombia”. International Advances in Economic Research, vol.20, #2, pp-167-187.DOI:10.1007/s11294-013-9455-7.
Bravo, Jorge, Nicole Mun Sim Lai, Gretchen Donehower and Ivan Mejia-Guevara (2013). Ageing and Retirement Security: United States of America, Mexico and Mexican American. Technical Paper No. 2103/5, Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2013.
Ladusingh, Laishram (2013). Financing young and elderly dependents: The case of Indian public policy. Asia Pacific Development Journal. 20(1): 121-43.
Abstract: n this paper the author explores the monetary benefits of young and elderly dependents under the public policy that introduced age into the National Accounts of India, the framework of the National Transfer Accounts. The results of the study indicate that the net monetary gain of young dependents is more than seven times higher than that of elderly dependents. It is suggested that there is a need to reorient the country’s fiscal policy in order to meet the demand for sustainable social security in the face of impending population ageing in the decades ahead. A desirable policy strategy would be to convert all social assistance programmes into a single long-term national social security programme, the scope of which would encompass various aspects of intergenerational equity, raise the level of entitlement to match actual need and make national social security a universal programme.
Ladusingh, Laishram (2013). Gender accounting of consumption and life-cycle deficit for India. Asia Pacific Population Journal. 28(2): 27-49.
Abstract: In the present paper, labour income, consumption and the life-cycle deficit (LCD) by gender for India is considered. From the individual’s perspective, private and public consumption for education, health and other goods and services has been taken into account. For either sex, the share of public consumption is about 17 per cent of the total consumption for health, education and others. Throughout the life cycle, the per capita annual labour income of a woman is lower than that of a man; even at the peak age of earning, it is only about one-sixth of a man’s per capita labour income at the corresponding age. Though a male consumes more for health, education and other goods and services, the gender gap is not as wide as that of income from labour. At the per capita level, a male experiences a monetary surplus during the working age range of 20 to 64 years and faces a life-cycle deficit only before entering the labour market and during old age, but a female must deal with a life-cycle deficit all through the life cycle.
Mason, Andrew and Ronald Lee (2013). Labor and consumption across the lifecycle. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 1-2: 16-27.
Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2013). Youth and their changing economic roles in Asia. Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 27(1): 61-82.
Zagheni, Emilio and Marina Zannella 92013). The life cycle dimension of time transfers in Europe. Demographic Research, 29(937-948), published online: 5 November 2013. http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol29/35.pdf DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.35.
Dramani, Latif and Fahd Ndiaye (2012). Estimating the First Demographic Dividend in Senegal: The National Transfers Account Approach. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade. 2(2): 39-59, 2012.
Ladusingh, Laishram (2012). Lifecycle Deficit, Intergenerational Public and Familial Support System in India. Asian Population Studies, DOI:10.1080/17441730.2012.714671. Published online: 7 August 2012.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2012). Population aging, intergenerational transfers, and economic growth: Asia in a global context. In Aging in Asia: Findings from new and emerging data initiatives, edited by J.P. Smith and M. Majmundar. Committee on Policy Research and Data Needs to Meet the Challenge of Aging in Asia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press Available online.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2012). Economic lifecycle and support system in Asia. In Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, edited by Donghyun Park, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, pp. 130-60.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, Andrew Mason, and Donghyun Park (2012). Why does population aging matterso much for Asia? In Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, edited by Donghyun Park, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, pp. 1-31.
Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2012). Population, wealth, and economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. In Donghyun Park, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason, eds. Aging, economic growth, and old-age security in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Narayana, M.R. (2012). Impact of Population Ageing on India's Public Finance. Asian Population Studies, DOI:10.1080/17441730.2012.714670, published online: 13 August 2012.
Obstfeld, M., D. Cho, and Andrew Mason, eds. (2012). Global economic crisis: Impacts, transmission, and recovery. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Sang-Hyop Lee, R. Matsukura, A-C Tung, and M.S. Lai (2012). Population aging, economic growth and intergenerational transfers in Japan: How dire are the prospects? In Aging, economic growth, and old-age security in Asia, edited by Donghyun Park, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, pp. 231-76.
Olaniyan, Olanrewaju, Adedoyin Soyibo, Akanni Olayinka Lawanson (2012). Demographic transition, demographic dividend and economic growth in Nigeria. African Population Studies. 26(2)(Nov).
Patxot, Concepció, Elisenda Rentería, Miguel Sánchez Romero and Guadalupe Souto (2012). Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: The modified Lee Arrows. International Tax and Public Finance, v. 19 n. 3, 442-461. http://www.springerlink.com/content/t81701677n253424/.
Rosero-Bixby, L. and Jiménez-Fontana, P. Retos y Oportunidades del Cambio Demográfico para la Política fiscal. Universidad de Costa Rica. Available online.
Sánchez Romero, Miguel, Concepció Patxot, Elisenda Rentería and Guadalupe Souto (2012). On the effects of Public and Private Transfers on Capital Accumulation: Some Lessons from NTA Aggregates. Journal of Population Economics. Published online, 30 May 2012. Available online.
Soyibo, Adedoyin, Germano Mwabu, Olanrewaju Olaniyan and Moses Muriithi (2012). Comparative analysis of economic lifecycle deficits in Kenya and Nigeria: Some estimation results. African Statistical Journal 15(August).
Lai, Mun Sim (2011). When having many children pays: A case study from Taiwan. Journal of Population Economics. Berlin: Springer.
Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason (2011). Generational Economics in a Changing World. Population and Development Review 37(Supplement): 115-42.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2011). Lifecycles, support systems, and generational flows: Patterns and change. In Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, lead authors and editors. Population aging and the generational economy: A global perspective. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, pp. 79-108.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason, lead authors and editors (2011). Population aging and the generational economy: A global perspective. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason (2011). The price of maturity. Finance and Development, 48(1).
Lee, Sang-Hyop and Andrew Mason (2011). "International Migration, Population Age Structure and Economic Growth in Asia." Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, 20(2): 195-213.
Narayana, M.R. (2011). Lifecycle Deficit and Public Age Reallocations for India's Elderly Population: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts. Journal of Population Ageing, DOI 10.1007/s12062-011-9044-6. Published online, 24 June 2011.
Olaniyan, Olanrewaju, Adedoyin Soyibo and Akanni O. Lawanson (2011). Consumption and income over the lifecycle in Nigeria. African Population Studies. 25:1 (April).
Patxot, Concepció, Elisenda Rentería, Miguel Sánchez Romero, and Guadalupe Souto (2011). Integrated results for GA and NTA for Spain: Some implications for the sustainability of welfare state. Moneda y Crédito., 231:7-52. Madrid: Fundación Banco Santander.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2010). Low fertility, human capital, and macroeconomics. European Journal of Population. 26(2): 159–82.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2010). Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging. Demography. 47:151-72. Available online.
Mason, Andrew, Ronald Lee and Sang-Hyop Lee (2010). Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families. International Social Security Review. 63(3/4): 145-75. [French version: Dynamique de la population: sécurité sociale, marches et familles; German version: Bevolkerungsdynamik: Soziale Sicherheit, Märkte und Familien; Spanish version: Din á mica de la población seguridad social, mercados y familias].
Auerbach, Alan J. and Ronald D. Lee (2009). Notional defined contribution pension systems in a stochastic context: Design and stability. In Social security policy in a changing environment, edited by Jeffrey Brown, Jeffrey Liebman and David Wise. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Also NBER Working Paper 12805 (January 2, 2007).
Lai, Mun Sim and Meechai Orsuwan (2009). "Examining the impact of Taiwan's cash allowance program on private households." World Development. 7(7): 1250-60.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2009). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. European Journal of Population.
Mason, Andrew, Ronald Lee, An-Chi Tung, Mun Sim Lai, and Tim Miller (2009). Population aging and intergenerational transfers: Introducing age into National Income Accounts. In Developments in the economics of aging, edited by David Wise. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 89-126. (Read the earlier version [[WP05-01]).
Ogawa, Naohiro, Rikiya Matsukura, and Maliki (2009). Rapid population aging and changing intergenerational transfers in Japan. In International Handbook of Demography of Aging, edited by Peter Uhlenberg, Springer-Verlag.
Bixby, Luis Rosero, and Arodys Robles (2008). Los dividendos demograficos y la economia del ciclo vital en Costa Rica. Papeles de Poblacion. 55:9-34 [in Spanish].
Clark, Robert, Naohiro Ogawa, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Rikya Matsukura (2008). Older workers and national productivity in Japan. Population and Development Review. 34:257–74.
Ladusingh, Laishram, and M.R. Narayana (2008). Population aging and life cyle deficit: The case of India. In Population, Poverty & Health- Analytical Approaches, edited by K.K.Singh, R.C.Yadava and Arvind Pandey. New Delhi: Hindustan Publishing Corporation, pp. 259-76.
Lee, Ronald, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason (2008). Charting the economic lifecycle. In Population aging, human capital accumulation, and productivity growth, edited by A. Prskawetz, D. E. Bloom, and W. Lutz. New York: Population Council, pp. 208-237. [supplement to Population and Development Review]. (Read the earlier version WP05-08). Also NBER Working Paper 12379 (July).
Maliki (2008). Health care and health care facilities demand among the Indonesian elderly. Singapore Economic Review. 53(1).
Mason, Andrew, and Tomoko Kinugasa (2008). East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends. Journal of Asian Economics. 19(5/6): 389-99.
Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, Ronald Lee, and Chong-Bum An (2008). Aging and social policy: An international perspective. In Social policy at the crossroads: Trends in advanced countries and implications for Korea, edited by Sang-Hyop Lee, Andrew Mason, and Kwang-Eon Sul. Seoul: Korea Development Institute, pp. 191-210.
Miller, Tim (2008). The economic impact of the demographic dividend on social sectors. In Demographic change and its influence on development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Santiago: United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Original report in Spanish. English version available.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Rikiya Matsukura, and Maliki (2008). Rapid population aging and changing intergenerational uransfers in Japan. In International handbook of demography of aging, edited by Peter Uhlenberg. Springer-Verlag.
Ogawa, Naohiro, R.D. Retherford, and R. Matsukura (2008). Japan’s declining fertility and policy responses. In Ultra-low fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, causes and policy dilemma, edited by Gavin Jones. London: Taylor and Francis.
Queiroz, Bernardo L., Cassio Turra, and Elisenda R. Perez (2008). The opportunities we can´t forgo: Economic consequences of demographic changes in Brazil. In ICFAI's Professional Reference Book: The demographic dividend: Economic consequences.
Racelis, Rachel H., John Michael Ian S. Salas, Fe Vida N. Dy Liacco, and Raquel Dolores V. Sabeñano (2008). Philippine National Health Accounts: Estimating individual person health expenditures from household-level data. Philippine Statistician. 57:55-66.
Robinson, Rachel Sullivan, Ronald Lee, and Karen Kramer (2008). Counting women's labor: A reanalysis of children's net production in Mead Cain's Bangladeshi village. Population Studies. 62(1): 25-38.
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (2008). Demographic change and its influence on development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Report for the 32nd session of ECLAC, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. [Available in English ECLAC2008_English and in Spanish ECLAC2008_Spanish].
Wang Feng, and Andrew Mason (2008). The demographic factor in China’s transition. In China’s great economic transformation, edited by Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski. Cambridge University Press, pp. 136-166.
Clark, Robert L., Naohiro Ogawa, and Rikiya Matsukura (2007). Population aging, changing retirement policies and lifetime earnings profiles in Japan. In Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, edited by Robert Clark, Naohiro Ogawa, and Andrew Mason. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, pp. 17-34.
Clark, Robert, Andrew Mason, and Naohiro Ogawa (2007). Economic and policy implications of population aging. In Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, edited by Robert Clark, Naohiro Ogawa, and Andrew Mason. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, pp. 3-14.
Kinugasa, Tomoko and Andrew Mason (2007). Why countries become wealthy: The effects of adult longevity on saving. World Development 35(1): 1-23.
Lee, Ronald (2007). Global population aging and its economic consequences. Washington, D.C.: The American Enterprise Institute Press.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2007). Who gains from the demographic dividend? Forecasting income by age. International Journal of Forecasting. 24(4): 603-19.
Mason, Andrew (2007). Demographic dividends: The past, the present, and the future. In Population change, labor markets and sustainable growth: Towards a new economic paradigm, edited by Andrew Mason and Mitoshi Yamaguchi. Elsevier Press.
Mason, Andrew (2007). Demographic transition and demographic dividends in developing and developed countries. In Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City, 31 August–2 September 2005.
Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee (2007). Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: Capturing the second demographic dividend. Genus. 62(2): 11-35. (Read the earlier version WP06-05).
Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee (2007). Transfers, capital, and consumption over the demographic transition. In Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, edited by Robert Clark, Naohiro Ogawa, and Andrew Mason. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, pp. 128-62.
Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Ronald Lee (2007). Asian demographic change: Its economic and social implications. Paper commissioned by the Asian Development Bank.
Mason, Andrew and Wang Feng (2007). “Dividends from China’s Declining Birth Rate,” Guanxi: The China letter 2(4): 1-8.
Matsukura, Rikiya, Naohiro Ogawa, and Robert L. Clark (2007). "Analysis of employment patterns and the changing demographic structure of Japan," The Japanese Economy 34(1):82-153.
Matsukura, Rikiya, Naohiro Ogawa, and Robert L. Clark (2007). Analysis of employment patterns and the changing demographic structure of Japan. The Japanese Economy. 34(1): 82-153.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Andrew Mason, Maliki, Rikiya Matsukura, and Kazuro Nemoto (2007). Population aging and health care spending in Japan: Public and private sector responses. In Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, edited by Robert Clark, Andrew Mason, and Naohiro Ogawa. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Elgar Press, pp. 192-233.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Maliki, and Rikiya Matsukura (2007). Population aging and demographic dividends: Some evidence from selected Asian countries. In The impact of ageing, edited by G. Sinigoj, G. Jones, K. Hirokawa, and S. Linhart. Vienna: LIT, pp.69-85.
Perez, Elisenda R., Cassio Turra, and Bernardo L. Queiroz (2007). Abuelos y nietos, Una a convivencia beneficiosa para los más jóvenes? El caso de Brasil y Perú. Papeles de Población. 52:47-75 [In Spanish].
Turra, Cassio M., and Bernardo L. Queiroz (2007). Before it's too late: Demographic transition, labor supply, and social security problems in Brazil. In Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures. New York: United Nations, pp. 103-18.
Wang Feng, and Andrew Mason (2007). Demographic dividends and prospects for development in China. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures. Mexico City, 31 August–2 September.
Wang Feng, and Andrew Mason (2007). Population aging in China: Challenges, opportunities, and institutions. In Transition and challenge: China’s population at the beginning of the 21st century, edited by Zhongwei Zhao and Fei Guo. Oxford University Press, pp. 177-96.
Wang Feng, and Andrew Mason (2007). Population aging in China: Challenges, opportunities, and institutions. China Population Science [in Chinese].
Bravo, Jorge, and Fabio M. Bertranou (2006). Evolución demográfica y pensiones en Chile. OIT Notas 4 - June 2006. Santiago, Chile: International Labor Office for the Southern Zone of Latin America. Available online.
Lee, Ronald (2006). Discussion of 'the rate of return of pay as you go pension systems: A more exact consumption-loan model of interest. In Pension reform: Issues and prospects for non-financial defined contribution (NDC) schemes, edited by Robert Holzmann and Edward Palmer. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, pp. 143-47.
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2006). What is the demographic dividend? Finance and Development, September:16-17. (Read the earlier version WP06-08)
Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2006). What is the demographic dividend? Finance and Development. September: 16-17. LM2006 The same paper is available in different languages: Les dividendes de l’évolution démographique LM2006_French; ¿Cuál es el dividendo demográfico? LM2006_Spanish; Что такое демографический дивиденд? LM2006_Russian. (Read the earlier version WP06-08).
Mason, Andrew (2006). Demographic dividends and public policy. Asia-Pacific Population Journal 21(3): 7-16.
Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee (2006). Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: Capturing the second demographic dividend. GENUS 62(2): 11-35.
Miller, Tim (2006). Demographic models for projections of social sector demand. United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Population and Development Series (available in Spanish and English). English version.
Ogawa, Naohiro, and Noriyuki Takayama (2006). Demography and aging. In The Oxford handbook of pensions and retirement income, edited by Gordon L. Clark, Alicia H. Munnell, and J. Michael Orszag. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 163-182.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Robert D. Retherford, and Rikiya Matsukura (2006). Demographics of the Japanese family: Entering uncharted territory. In The changing Japanese family, edited by Marcus Rebick and Ayumi Takenaka. London: Routledge, pp. 19-38.
Retherford, Robert, and Naohiro Ogawa (2006). Japan’s baby bust; Causes, implications, and policy responses. In The baby bust: Who will do the work? Who will pay the taxes?, edited by Fred R. Harris. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield, pp. 5-47.
Turra, Cassio M., and Bernardo L. Queiroz (2006). Las transferencias intergeneracionales y la desigualdad socioeconómica en el Brasil: Un analísis inicial. Notas de Población. 80:65-98 [In Spanish].
Wolff, Francois-Charles, and Maliki (2006). “Child health and labor, evidence from Indonesia.” Economics and Human Biology. 6(1).
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2005). Aging and old-age support systems: issues and reforms. In A new paradigm for social welfare in the new Mmllennium, edited by Lee-Jay Cho, Hyungpyo Moon, Yoon Hyung Kim, and Sang-Hyop Lee. Seoul: Korea Development Institute, pp. 187-228.
Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2005). Mother’s education, learning-by-doing, and child health care in rural India. Comparative Education Review 49(4): 534-51.
Mason, Andrew (2005). Economic demography. In Handbook on population, edited by Michael Micklin and Dudley Poston. Klewer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo (2005). Demography of aging across Asia. In Handbook of Asian aging, edited by H. Yoon and J. Hendricks. Amityville, NY: Baywood Publishing Co., pp. 25-65.
Ogawa, Naohiro (2005). Population aging and policy options for suitable future: The case of Japan. GENUS 6:369-410.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Makoto Kondo, and Rikiya Matsukura (2005). Japan’s transition from the demographic bonus to the demographic onus. Asian Population Studies. 1:207-26.
Ogawa, Naohiro, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Rikiya Matsukura (2005). Health and its impact on work and dependency among the elderly in Japan. Asian Population Studies. 1:121-45.
Turra, Cassio M., and Bernardo L. Queiroz (2005). Transferencias intergeracionais: Uma análise internacional. Revista Brasileira de Estudos da População. 22(1): 191-95 [In Portuguese].