Six Ways Population Changes Will Affect the Global Economy
Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, and members of the NTA network (forthcoming) Six Ways Population Change is Affecting the Global Economy. Population and Development Review.
New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades 1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; 2) GDP will shift towards sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; 3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; 4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower income nations; 5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and 6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional and global economies.
Co-Authors: Michael Abrigo (Philippines Institute of Development Studies), Ruslan Aliyev (Department of Economics, ADA University, Azerbaijan), Eugenia Amporfu (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana), Tommy Bengtsson (Centre for Economic Demography and Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden), Barthelemy Biao (Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Parakou, Benin), Luis Rosero Bixby (Costa Rica), Arjan Bruil (Statistics Netherlands), Marisa Bucheli (Department of Economics, Universidad de la República, Uruguay), Enkhtsetseg Byambaa (Department of Economics, National University of Mongolia), Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak (Warsaw School of Economics), Pablo Comelatto (Centro de Estudios de Población-CENEP, Argentina), Deidra Coy (Planning Institute of Jamaica), Hippolyte d'Albis (Paris School of Economics, University of Paris), Mikhail Denissenko (Institute of Demography, HSE University, Russia), Gretchen Donehower (Demography Department, University of California, Berkeley), Sadou DOUMBO (Universite de Thiès / CREFAT, Senegal), Latif Dramani (Universite de Thiès / CREFAT, Senegal), Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz (Vienna University of Technology), Robert Gal (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute), Christopher Gee (Institute of Policy Studies, National University of Singapore), Cecilia González (Department of Economics, Universidad de la República, Uruguay), Tengku Aizan Hamid (Malaysian Research Institute on Aging, Universiti Putra Malaysia), Bernhard Hammer (Vienna Institute of Demography), Mauricio Holz (UNESCO, Regional Bureau for Education in Latin America and the Caribbean, Chile), Tanja Istenic (Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia), Pamela Jiménez-Fontana (University of Costa Rica), Shen Ke (Institute of Population Research, Fudan University, China ), Bazlul Khondker (Department of Economic, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh), Hyun Kyung Kim (Statistics Bureau, Republic of Korea), Fanny Kluge (Max Plank Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Majid Koosheshi (Department of Demography, University of Tehran, Iran), Laishram Ladusingh (Bodoland University, India), Mun Sim Lai (United Nations DESA-Population Division, New York), Sang-Hyop Lee (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii), Thanh Long (Institute of Public Policy and Management, National Economics University, Vietnam), Silvino Lopes (General Directorate of Statistics, Timor-Leste), Adrian Lupusor (Expert-Grup, Moldova), Ricardo Córdova Macías (Fundaungo, El Salvador), NFN Maliki (BAPENAS, Indonesia), Rikiya Matsukura (Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI), Japan), David McCarthy (University of Georgia, US), Iván Mejia (Stanford University), Marcel Merette (University of Ottawa, Canada), Germano Mwabu (University of Nairobi, Kenya), M.R. Narayana (Fiscal Policy Institute, India), Isalia Nava (Institute of Economics, National Autonomous University of Mexico), Vanndy Nor (National Institute of Statistics, Cambodia), Gilberto Norte (UNFPA Mozambique), Naohiro Ogawa (University of Tokyo), Olanrewaju Olaniyan (Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria), Javier Olivera (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) and the Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru (PUCP)), Morne Oosthuizen (School of Economics, University of Cape Town, South Africa), Concepció Patxot (Department of Economics, University of Barcelona), James Rice (School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Australia), Fathimath Riyaza (National Bureau of Statistics, Maldives), Paulo Saad (CELADE, Chile), Joze Sambt (Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia), Aylin Seckin (İstanbul Bilgi University, Turkey), James Sefton (Imperial College Business School, UK), Verónica Serafini (Faculty of Economics, Universidad Nacional de Asuncion, Paraguay), Latdavanh Songvilay (National Institute for Economic Research, Lao PDR), Guadalupe Souto (Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain), Wanchat Suwankitti (National Economic and Social Development Council, Thailand), Pham Toan (Institute of Labor Science and Social Affairs (ILSSA), Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs (MoLISA), Vietnam), Nimia Torres (Department of Economics and Social Planning, Paraguay), Jorge Tovar (Department of Economics, Universidad de los Andes-Bogotá), An-Chi Tung (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan), Cassio Turra (Department of Demography, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil), Piedad Urdinola (Department of Statistics, Universidad Nacional de Colombia-Bogotá), Risto Vaittinen (Finland Centre for Pensions), Marina Zannella (University of Rome)
Download paper: https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12469
Download supplemental information: Six ways Supplemental material
Policy Insight: https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/population-change-and-economy-results-global-comparative-project
Download data: Six ways data
NTA indicators: https://ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show/Time%20Series%20Indicators
Presented at the IUSSP, International Population Conference 2021.