NTA2020 Tung

Global Meeting on Population and the Generational Economy, August 2020

Presentation: An-Chi Tung, Kevin Yu-Ching Hsieh, Boomers vs Millennials: Who Owes How Much to Whom?

Abstract

In this study, we examine the economic transfers across generations, using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) framework. We start by estimating lifetime net transfers (in present values) mediated by the government (public transfers, or TG), and then extend the analysis to include private transfers (mostly in the form of intra-familial transfers, called TF hereafter), as there is a certain degree of substitutability between TF and TG, both conceptually and empirically. We seek to answer the following questions. First, does the lifetime payments and receipts of each cohort balance out? If yes, then the intergenerational relationships are fair. If it is not, which is more likely the case, the next question is: who owes how much to whom? A follow-up question is: how does the inequity occur? To what extent do economic growth, policy changes, social changes or other factors matter? A final question is: can we fix the inequity?

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