NTA2020 Olaniyan_a

Global Meeting on Population and the Generational Economy, August 2020

Presentation: Olanrewaju Olaniyan, Akanni Lawanson, Noah Olasehinde, Stephen Dauda, The Contribution of Kaduna State to Creating and Harnessing Demographic Dividend in Nigeria: An Application of sub-Country National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Approach


The huge population of Nigeria and the heterogeneity in the different regions of the country means that the process and opportunities for harnessing the demographic dividend would be different in the different regions. The objective of this paper is therefore to examine the nature and extent of demographic dividend in one sub-region (Kaduna state) of the country and compare the results with the countrywide situation. The State’s population is young, with about 46.1 per cent less than 15 years old and 80 per cent less than 35 years old. This young population provides an opportunity to launch the State into a path of sustainable prosperity. The nature and magnitude of DD for Kaduna State was estimated, using the National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology, which forms the basis for this paper. Although there are different approaches to estimating DD, the NTA methodology has some advantages over the others as It enables the analysis of how economic events, demographic changes and public policies affect people at different stages of their economic life. The result of DD estimation for Kaduna State reveals that the first demographic dividend window opened in 1996 (when the growth rate of support ratio in the State turned positive) and the trend will continue to rise till 2050-2052 before it begins to decline. It is therefore important for the State to take the advantage offered by the opportunity to harness the gains of the dividend and take appropriate development policy initiatives required before population aging sets in.

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