Global Meeting on Population and the Generational Economy, August 2020
Presentation: Bazlul Khondker, Muhammad Rahman, Impact Assessment of Covid-19 on Generational Accounts: An Application of Integration of NTA and Economywide Model
COVID 19 has exerted severe negative consequences on social and economic indicators. Multilateral agencies such as World Bank, IMF, the Asian Development Bank and UN system has mainly adopted the economywide modeling approaches to count the cost of the COVID 19. Analyses focused on impacts on GDP (or national income) by economic sectors; household income; unemployment and poverty. The impacts are well documented. In response to the deleterious consequences, most governments have also proposed stimulus packages to address the impacts and again used the economywide models to assess the effects of these stimuli. It is anticipated that different generations will be affected in different ways by COVID19 and the economic crisis. However, no attempt has been made to assess the impacts of COVID 19 and the proposed stimuli from the perspectives of generational economy or national transfer accounts – from the perspectives of economic security, generational equity, gender equality, public finance, and numerous other critical public policies thus establishing linkages between population dynamics and development. Following this gap, we propose to combine the economywide modeling approach with generation economy approach to provide deeper understanding of the COVID 19 impacts. More specifically, we intend to combine Bangladesh NTA with Bangladesh SAM model – since of both these approaches are anchored on the principles of National Accounts or System of National Accounts (SNA). The combined approach would help to assess whether labour income has been affected more compared to the asset income? It will also shed light on the role of public and private transfers help to alleviate generational imbalances. Furthermore, we believe such an approach would also help to dissect the shortcomings (or gaps) of the currently proposed stimulus and thus design more effective stimulus considering macro, sectoral and generational perspectives.
File: NTA2020 Khondker
Paper: NTA2020 paper Khondker
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