Global Meeting on Population and the Generational Economy, August 2020
Presentation: Marta Duda-Nyczak, Demographic Transition and Achieving the SDGs in LAC: A Regional Overview of the National Transfer Accounts
In the context of the rapidly advancing population ageing, the region of Latin America and the Caribbean is currently facing an unprecedented challenge of adapting to the transformed - yet, still evolving - age structure of the population. The paper provides a regional synthesis of the National Transfer Accounts on the basis of the most recent NTA estimates from 10 LAC countries2. Despite the greatly varying length of the per capita lifecycle surplus among the countries, the regional average stands at 26 years, with individuals below 30 and above 56 years old experiencing periods of deficits. At the aggregate level, children and youths continue being the biggest ‘burden’ to the regional economy and their deficit is mainly financed by private transfers. Public transfers are the principal financing flow of the older persons’ deficit. Using the UN population projections, the paper further illustrates the potential impact of the expected demographic changes. It is firstly estimated that the growing trend of the economic and fiscal support ratios is bound to continue only until 2032 and 2021, respectively. With the significant shift of consumption toward elder age groups over the next 30 years, driven in particular by expanding consumption of health-care and pensions and diminishing consumption of education, the lifecycle deficit will also shift its weight towards older persons. From just a third of the deficit volume of children and youths in 2020, the deficit of adults and older persons will constitute over a half of that of children and youths by 2030, and both will reach similar levels by 2050. Within the same timeframe, the overall lifecycle deficit is projected to expand, possibly hindering the achievement of the SDGs in the region and calling for policies and measures aimed in particular at increasing the labour force productivity.
File: NTA2020 Duda-Nyczak
Paper: NTA2020 paper Duda-Nyczak
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