NTA2020 Comelatto

Global Meeting on Population and the Generational Economy, August 2020

Presentation: Pablo Comelatto, NTA Results for Argentina

Abstract

The main results of the estimation of the National Transfer Accounts for Argentina 2016 are presented. The analysis includes estimates by socioeconomic level. Given the demographic history of the country, the cohort born between 1970 and 1990 reverses the drop in the consumption support ratio observed between 1950 and 1990. When the members of the cohort begin to reach productive ages, the window of demographic opportunity that Argentina is currently going through begins. Three socioeconomic levels are identified, according to the educational level reached by the head of the household. Given the different demographic and socioeconomic realities of the 3 groups, the public sector not only redistributes resources between age groups but also between different socioeconomic groups. Profiting from the demographic dividend rests on the contribution of the socio-economic group with the highest education, which is generating the lifecycle surpluses that are the main source of financing for the deficits of all groups. The current challenge for Argentina seems to be how to profit from the surpluses generated during the demographic window of opportunity to meet the simultaneous goals of 1) investing in the human capital of future workers; 2) finance fixed capital formation (which is today one of the main constraints impeding economic growth since 2012); and 3) sustain the consumption of older adults. The estimates highlight the complexity of the interaction between a large public sector with financing difficulties, an aging population, and a social structure with a significant level of stratification. 

File: NTA2020 Comelatto

Paper: NTA2020 paper Comelatto

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