Abstract.Day2.Weinreb

An NTA Approach to Public Health Funding for Glp-1 Drugs

Alex Weinreb and Kyrill Shraberman

We employ an NTA framework to consider the economic effects of publicly funding GLP-1 receptor agonists (e.g., Wegovy) for people classed as obese (BMI>30). Our estimates consider six scenarios, divided into two main groups: A baseline scenario defines the anticipated economic impact if levels of obesity continue to increase on their projected level, absent any GLP-1 intervention; a series of intervention scenarios consider the impact where GLP-1s are used by 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50% of people diagnosed as obese. Each scenario considers direct and indirect economic effects, respectively, anticipated reductions in expenditures on healthcare and disability, and anticipated increases in labor income, employment, years spent in the labor market and productivity. Estimates also include downstream effects on assets income and public inflows. A final extension of the series distinguishes between Israel's Jewish and Arab subpopulations, important given the differences in labor income profiles, as well as obesity.