Abstract.Day2.Singh

Emerging Life-Cycle Deficits in India from 2011 to 2036: A Simulation Exercise Using National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Methodology

Shivendra Singh, Arup Kumar Das, Sanjay Kumar

Abstract: We have examined the effect of reshaping its age structure on India's LCD. This study uses the National Transfer Accounts methodology to simulate 2011, 2023, and 2036 life-cycle deficits. Using WPP 2024, IHDS (2004, 2011), and National Accounts Statistics, we computed LCDs for these years, assuming labour income and consumption grow at half the annual 2005-2011 growth rate. Between 2011 and 2023, India's GDP grew by 7%, while labor income and consumption increased by 2.4 and 1.7 times, respectively. Between 2011 and 2036, the lifecycle deficit (LCD) of children relative to the elderly is projected to decline four times. the LCD shifts rightward, rising notably in the 15-20 age group and a rapid rise observed in older age groups. Escalating healthcare, pension, and significant pressure on social security systems for the elderly, and demand for an increase in per capita expenditures in higher education, visibly more among females.