Abstract.Day2.Oosthuizen

Harnessing Egypt's Demographic Dividend Estimates Based on National Transfer Accounts

Morne Oosthuizen, Mostafaa Saad Badawi, Eman Abbass, Aziz Abdel, Shaarawy Hussein, and Willis Dawlat-Odek

Egypt is moving through the demographic transition, with a population age structure expected to shift towards older cohorts in the next two decades. This study was conducted collaboratively by the National Statistical Office (CAPMAS) and UNFPA to establish the timing and magnitude of the demographic dividend (DD) to inform policy actions. Methodology: the study utilizes the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) approach, combined with household survey data, national accounts, and population data to provide a detailed profile of consumption and labor income across different age groups in Egypt. This framework allows for a comprehensive evaluation of the potential for a DD and the factors that influence it. Findings: the results show that per capita consumption is higher than per capita labor income at every age. Despite this consumption pattern, Egypt is currently experiencing a demographic dividend, estimated at 0.18% per year in 2024. This dividend is projected to peak at 0.52% in 2037 before declining and becoming negative in 2043. the analysis suggests that policy interventions aimed at promoting women's participation in the labor market could significantly enhance the DD.