Abstract.Day2.Msengwa

Leveraging Demographic Change in Tanzania Through the Lens of National Transfer Accounts (NTAs)

Amina S. Msengwa, Shadrack Kibona, Juma Nguyu, Samwel Msokwa, Mwinyi Mwinyi

A demographic model applied to Tanzania indicates that the country's potential to benefit from a demographic dividend largely depends on reducing fertility rates. After peaking at 6.8 children per woman in 1968, the fertility rate dropped to 4.8 in 2022, positively impacting the economic support ratio, which began improving in 2024. Significant demographic shifts are expected, including an increase in the working-age population and a decrease in the number of dependent children. By 2050, the support ratio is predicted to reach 100 working-age individuals for every 58 dependents, with an economic growth opportunity emerging in 2055 when the proportion of children falls below 30%. Although life expectancy is rising and the elderly population is growing, both young and elderly groups face a lifecycle deficit. To fully realize the demographic dividend, Tanzania must address high birth rates while also investing in education, health, and job creation to stimulate economic growth.