NTA14 Abstracts

Angela, Baschieri, Willis, Odek, Marc, Derveeuw, Building contextual development challenges into the national transfer accounts (NTA) approach to demographic divided estimation: A case study of the HIV epidemic in Lesotho
Abstract: Background: The Southern African country of Lesotho has a potential to reap the demographic dividend (DD) from its population age structure, which has the majority (63%) in the working age. However, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, estimated to affect at least one in four people of reproductive age, threatens this prospect.

Methods: We estimate DD in Lesotho for the period 1990-2100, taking into account the demographic effects of a 50 to 100 percent reduction in access to HIV services due to financing constraints.

Results: For the 2020-2060 period, the cumulative DD is estimated at 18.4 percent, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 0.40 percent. This declines to 15.3 percent, with an average annual growth rate of 0.34 per cent under a scenario of 100 percent reduction in access to HIV services.

Conclusion: Sustainable financing of HIV response is critical to the realization of DD in Lesotho.
File Link: NTA14.Ang

Arestoff Florence, Djemai Elodie, Koussoube Estelle, Children nutrition status: The effect of micro and macro fertility levels at birth
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the human-capital effects of fertility-induced resource constraints at both the country and household levels in developing countries. Using data from 140 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 60 developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America since 1999, we explore the impact of changes in fertility at child's birth on their nutrition. More specifically, micro-level data on about 1,040,000 DHS children aged under-five are matched to time-series data on demographic factors (e.g. the fertility rate) in each country in the sample to estimate the impact of country-level resource constraints at birth on children's outcomes. Household-level fertility at birth is measured by the number of older siblings. The country and mother fixed-effects models suggest that greater country-level fertility worsens child nutrition status. This suggests that more pressure on resources outweighs the positive effect from greater experience following additional births. We test for heterogeneous effects by region and show that the size of the household-fertility effects are larger in Asia compared to Latin America and Africa.
File Link: NTA14.Are

Bernhard Hammer, Michael Christl, Silvia De Poli, Public redistribution in Europe: How does it affect the income of families?
Abstract: Evaluations of public transfers usually focus on the effect on the overall income distribution. In our work we show how European welfare states redistribute between generations and income groups with a focus on how taxes and benefits affect the income of families. The analysis is based on EU-SILC together with the data generated by the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model. It extends the analysis of Hammer et al. (2022), who analyze the redistribution to pensioners and the working age population by income quartiles using net benefit ratios. Their concept of measuring redistribution can be applied to any subgroup of the population, and is particular interesting for families. Government redistribution in several Southern European countries aggravate disadvantages of families, and is characterized by low labour force participation of mothers, high taxes and little social support of families. Northern European provide a more attractive framework for families, combining high labour force participation of mothers with additional income support.
File Link: NTA14.Ber

Abstract: Ce papier vise à mesurer la valeur sdu travail domestique non rémunéré. L’approche des NTTA est utilisée sur les données d’enquête nationale. Les résultats montrent que les femmes génèrent un surplus sur leur cycle de vie contrairement aux hommes. Le travail domestique non rémunéré représente 24,3% le PIB du Bénin en 2018 avec une part de 18,4% venant des femmes et 5,0% des hommes ; L’amplitude de la contribution des femmes à la création de la valeur ajoutée est plus importante que celle de la contribution des hommes dans les « activités économiques ». Le revenu du travail des femmes est supérieur à celui des hommes sur la tranche d’âge 18-60 ans. Les projets d’autonomisation économique en faveur du genre doivent tenir compte de ces résultats.
File Link: NTA14.BIA

Bounthideth, Soulaxay, Songvilay, Latdavanh, How Lao PDR Will Benefit from the Demographic Dividend
Abstract: Lao PDR is in the early stage of a demographic transition in which the share of the working-age population is increasing, and the share of the dependent population is decreasing. According to UN’s projection (2019), the working-age population is expected to cover 66.5 percent of the total population in 2030 and peak at 68.7 percent in 2050. A steady decline of fertility since mid-1980s has been a significant contributor to this first demographic dividend. This situation provides a window of opportunity for Laos to enjoy higher economic growth for the next few decades. The economic benefit is not automatic, however. It requires a sound human-capital development policy based on investment in the education and health of children and young people so that the future labor force will be productive.
File Link: NTA14.Bou

Boureima, Guiré, Amadou Souleymane, Malam Maman Nafiou, Abdoul Rachid Issoufou Dogo, Allocating young time in Niger: Does gender matter?
Abstract: This paper analyses the allocation of young people’s working time in Niger between market and domestic work. The analysis shows that young people in Niger participate in the labor market at a very early age, but with a difference in the amount of time spent between female and male groups. Young men spend around 7 hours a day on market work, while young women spend barely 4 hours a day. In addition, examination of this gap shows that the allocation of time between young men and women remains similar regardless of their place of residence. However, the head of household’s marital status and socio-professional category influence this gap. Men spend almost 7 hours a day on market production, while their female counterparts spend almost 5 hours. In households where the head has a higher level of education, women tend to equal men in terms of time spent on market production whereas, in households where the head has no education, women spend barely half time compare to men in market production. Moreover, the analysis of time allocated to domestic activities by sex, marital status, place of residence, and by the population’s level of education highlights several results. In general, young women spend more time on domestic production than young men, regardless of their place of residence, although the gap is smaller in urban areas than in rural areas. The gap widens when young people marry but decreases as the population’s educational level improves.
File Link: NTA14.Bou1

Calderon, Ricardo Cantú, The End of the Mexican Fiscal Dividend: A Microsimulation Approach
Abstract: The first and second demographic dividends are well-known and studied by the NTA framework, where the former refers to the support ratio between workers and consumers and the latter to the productivity growth per worker. However, there is too a meaningful "fiscal dividend": the amount of money that a population, given its age structure, pays through taxes and other contributions net from the public goods and services that they receive. As the aging process advances, it is expected that the public sector will collect fewer revenues and spend relatively more on health services, care, and pensions. This transition is already happening in Mexico, estimated to reach its maximum in 2025, and no savings were made when demographics played in its favor. Debt has been consistently used to balance the unbalanced public revenues and expenditures, oil incomes have been used to finance current expenditures, and labor productivity is now lower than in 2005. Therefore, intergenerational inequities are present in the Mexican Fiscal System, especially after the lack of infrastructure and human capital investments. A fiscal simulator was developed to portray such challenges and provide tools that might help understand the options available to overturn the poor income redistribution and fiscal sustainability in Mexico.
File Link: NTA14.Cal

Charles Correa, Cassio M Turra, National Transfer Accounts for Brazil: new results with a focus on the three levels of government
Abstract: This article presents a new set of NTA estimates for Brazil, including the life cycle deficit, private and public intergenerational transfers, and asset-based reallocations. We re-examine old questions, such as the relatively high public transfers to the elderly and the prevalence of private transfers to younger age groups, which made Brazil an exceptional case in the NTA project 20 years ago. Also, we estimate public transfers by the three levels of government: central, state, and local. The objective is to measure the fiscal risk associated with population aging for each government level, given that the composition of public revenues and expenditures are very different among them.
File Link: NTA14.Cha

Cheritel, Côme, Generational Carbon Accounts: Decomposing the carbon footprint by age to assess the impact of age and generation on carbon emissions
Abstract: There is no broad scientific consensus on the impact of population dynamics such as population ageing on greenhouse gas emissions and consequently on global warming, due, in particular, to the lack of studies considering the decomposition of the carbon footprint over the long term. This project thus proposes a methodology for constructing age-specific carbon accounts. First, by estimating a household consumption model, I decompose a households consumption microdata by types of goods and by households members. Successively with Input-Output data, I estimate the carbon footprint of each category of goods and services by age group and subsequently derive a decomposition of the carbon footprint of a given country by type of goods. The method proposed is highly flexible and can therefore be applied widely. Preliminary results are provided for France, Japan, South Korea and Mexico. Moreover, this project provides early estimates of pseudo-panels of French carbon footprint from household consumption, spanning from 1979 to 2011.
File Link: NTA14.Che

Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka, Łątkowski, Wojciech, Impact of changes in years 2004-2020 on projections of aggregated lifecycle deficit and public transfers: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts
Abstract: We quantify the potential impact of changes in labour income, consumption and public transfers in Poland on the future aggregate public transfers and lifecycle deficit. Changes in the NTA age profiles between 2004 and 2020 led to declined aggregate lifecycle deficit from 61.6% to 50.9% of aggregate labour income, and increased aggregate public transfers between 2016 and 2020 by 3.7% of aggregate labour income. The latter is related to changes in public policy, including increased public consumption of education, new universal transfers for families, and increased spending on health consumption at older ages. If current per-capita age profiles remain, the aggregate lifecycle deficit will rise over the coming decades to reach 80% of aggregate labour income by 2058 and then to 84% of aggregate labour income. Public transfers inflows are expected to increase from 70.4% to 109% of aggregate labour income. Maintaining current public transfers per capita is unsustainable.
File Link: NTA14.Chl

Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka, Marszałek, Marta, Łątkowski, Wojciech, Reversed revolution? Gender division of market and household work in the low-fertility environment in Poland
Abstract: The gender division of market and household work remains unequal across the world. This is related in particular to childcare responsibilities. Therefore, reconciliation of work and family lives and broader engagement of women on the labour market is a challenge. The “incomplete revolution” of responsibilities at the household level result in a persistent gender gap in employment, particularly in the case of women with below higher educational attainment.

We analyse the developments of labour market inactivity of women aged 25-49 years due to childcare responsibilities after 2003, including the age, period and cohort effects vis a vis the women’s engagement in the time of work at home.

Our analysis shows that since 2004 there is a stall and reverse of the gender revolution in Poland, resulting in reduced labour income, increase time of unpaid work and labour market inactivity of women. The latter is particularly visible after 2015, since the introduction of the conservative government.
File Link: NTA14.Chla

D'ALBIS Hippolyte, BADJI Ikpidi, Generational evolution of disposable income in France
Abstract: The national transfer accounts are based on cross-sectional surveys. If several waves of surveys are used, it is possible to represent the evolution of profiles over time, but it is impossible to reconstruct the complete profiles of all cohorts. In particular, the older cohorts of older surveys and the younger cohorts of recent surveys are described with very few observations. In this paper, we propose to use age-cohort-period methods to reconstruct missing data, i.e., ages for which the cohorts are not observed given the available surveys. We apply this idea to the French case to reconstruct the evolution of disposable income from generation to generation. We first show that the model fits well the available data. We then evaluate the generational evolution of disposable income and show that it has strongly increased in France. This confirms that the younger generations are not disadvantaged compared to the baby boomers.
File Link: NTA14.Dal

d'Albis Hippolyte, Navaux Julien, Pelletan Jacques, Financing the lifecycle deficit: mutations over the period 1979-2019 in France
Abstract: This article presents National Transfer Accounts over the period 1979-2019 in France. A rise in consumption at each age appears, interrupted over the last decade, except for older people. Despite the rise in the employment rate of older workers, their high consumption cannot be explained by labor income. Furthermore, net public transfers to people aged 60 and over have been falling since 2009, unlike transfers to the youngest. Neither net private transfers able to explain the growth in consumption by seniors. These transfers help to explain, on the other hand, the level of consumption of the youngest despite revenues from labor market arriving later in life. The decline in seniors' savings in recent years may explain the positive trend in their consumption.
File Link: NTA14.DALa

Abstract: This paper attempts to determine the effects of taking into account the consumption of unpaid domestic work on the magnitude of the demographic dividend in Benin. NTA and NTTA approaches are used. The expected results are that:

  • The integration of the consumption of the products of unpaid domestic work into the consumption of “economic activities” would improve the level of labor productivity, hence an increase in the economic support ratio. The magnitude of the demographic dividend could increase relatively.
  • Consumption of health services, education and unpaid domestic services could contribute to measuring the level of human capital formation.
    File Link: NTA14.Det

Dosso Bakary, Latif Dramani, Lanre Olanyan, African Union Roadmap on harnessing demographic dividend through investments in youths: Review of the 5 years implementation status
Abstract: This paper presents the situation on the roadmap of the African Union launched in 2017 in Addis Ababa. The major achievements of this roadmap on the continent are highlighted. These include the establishment of DD observatories, the calibration of NTA and NTTA profiles as well as the implementation of the budgeting tool sensitive to the demographic dividend.%File Link: NTA14.Dos

Eini-Zinab, Hassan, Soleymanlou, Mehrnaz, Sobhani, Seyed Reza, The Effect of Age-structural and Nutritional Transitions on Food Consumption in Iran
Abstract: This paper aims to study the interplay between population age structural and nutritional transitions and their effect on food consumption using National Transfer Accounts methodology. The interplay could stem from two issues. First, as the consumption of food items and nutrients differ by age and sex, the existing age structure of a society affects the amount of food items consumed. Second, increasing obesity rates are the result of shifts in diets. The age-sex profiles of obesity rates coupled with the age-sex composition of the population also affects the quantity of the foods consumed. This integrated approach provides a new lens for evidence-based food security planning and policy making.

The age-sex profiles of food consumption are constructed using Iran’s HIES-2020 data. The profiles used include current consumption and proposed sustainable diets. The age-sex profiles of obesity constructed using existing data. The age-sex population structure of Iran for 1950-2050 is also utilized.
File Link: NTA14.Ein

El Mekkaoui Najat, Loukili Sara, Gendered differences in paid and unpaid labor, barriers to economic participation and wealth accumulation throughout the Lifecyle in Morocco
Abstract: Morocco is at a crucial stance in its demographic transition, with the highest proportion of young adults being at a working age. This trend of decreasing “dependency ratio” with a rising active population can substantially alleviate the “support ratio”, a population transformation that can stimulate economic growth, a phenomenon known as demographic dividends (Lee, 2003). However, several obstacles stand before benefiting from these structural changes, namely, the low investments in human capital, low risk coverage for the informal sector, a gender gap regarding labor force participation and the subsequent gender differentials in lifecycle wealth accumulation. This research draws on conclusions from the National Transfer Accounts and the National Time Transfer Accounts for understanding the gender gap in labor force participation and lifelong wealth accumulation. We show that the gender gap in economic participation in Morocco is far from being an isolated phenomenon. Structural stagnation in labor market dynamics undoubtedly constitute the main barriers to women’s economic participation and result in gender biased gaps throughout the lifecycle.
File Link: NTA14.El

Elisenda Rentería, Joan García Román, Guadalupe Souto, Non-monetary interhousehold transfers: Is time use data adequate?
Abstract: In the National Transfer Accounts methods, non-monetary transfers between individuals are measured using Time Use surveys. However, there are doubts about how activities done for people not living in the same household (interhousehold transfers) are measured. For example, people can be devoting time to preparing food or shopping for outside members of the household, and this would hardly appear as an interhousehold transfer. In this paper we compare interhousehold transfers measured using the Harmonised European Time Use survey (HETUS) with similar estimates using the SHARE survey, where there is a question asking how much time the person devotes to help members not living in the same household. As SHARE only interviews people aged 50 and older, we restrict our sample to those individuals. We expect that results will show that SHARE estimates are larger than transfers estimated using HETUS, but this may differ by country and level of co-residence of different generations.
File Link: NTA14.Eli

Fukuda, Setsuya, Matsukura, Rikiya, The Future Demand-Supply Gap in Unpaid Work in Japan and the UK: How Population Ageing Affects Intergenerational Transfers of Unpaid Work?
Abstract: The demand for household care work in future generations may not be met in many countries due to population ageing and the increasing trend for dual-earner households across the globe. This study aims to assess the future demand-supply gap in the intergenerational transfer of care work in Japan and the UK, two similarly developed countries with different demographic and cultural contexts. We will examine how the demand and supply of unpaid work will change in the future due to the changes in population structure and quantify the demand-supply gap in unpaid work at the national level. We will further discuss how these demand-supply gaps in unpaid work would be fulfilled in each country. Our study will, for the first time in our knowledge, provide quantitative estimates of the future care crisis in aging societies.
File Link: NTA14.Fuk

Gal, Robert Ivan, Vanhuysse, Pieter, Intergenerational Resource Transfers in the Context of Welfare States
Abstract: Familial transfers of goods and services paid for in the market or produced by domestic labor leave few traces, as families do not usually keep books of such transactions. By contrast, inter-age transfers that go through the public channel or are managed by market actors connect large numbers of strangers whose transactions are therefore registered by at least one of the parties. Registration generates data, and data make processes statistically visible. The asymmetry in visibility matters since societies tend to appreciate what they measure (e.g., Mau 2019, Miller 2017). This chapter explores the potential of NTA and NTTA for extending the statistically visible world and uses the new insights to challenge several pieces of received wisdom, such as the welfare state being a luxury that undermines competitiveness by making labor expensive; or ‘the creeping gerontocracy,’ older voters usurping the electoral system to squeeze ever-larger pieces from the cake for themselves; or that work-family measures supporting parental employment are increasing the number of transfer for parents.
File Link: NTA14.Gal

Gee, Christopher, Choo, Eddie, Singapore’s demographic dividends: past and future
Abstract: Singapore’s first demographic dividend contributed 38% of the GDP per capita growth between 1970 and 2010. This first dividend was however exhausted by 2012, when a rising chronological old-age dependency ratio offset the decline in young-age dependency. Looking ahead, population ageing as computed on a chronological, static basis will lead to a drag to GDP per capita growth of 2.2% per annum between 2020 and 2050. This paper explores the potential for a second demographic dividend in Singapore, which can arise as a societal response to population ageing via saving and capital accumulation (Mason & Lee, 2004). Policies that would support the emergence and capture of the benefits of this second dividend are also discussed.
File Link: NTA14.Gee

Gilbert Montcho, Julien Navaux, Marcel Merette, Comparing Public Transfers to Immigrants and Natives in Canada: A National Transfer Accounts Approach
Abstract: In Canada, immigration constitutes the primary response to population ageing. While extensive research has covered the impact of immigration on various aspects of the labour supply, the financial aspect has received less attention. In this study, we apply the National Transfer Account (NTA) method and demographic decomposition to estimate the net fiscal cost of immigration in Canada between 1997 and 2015. Results show that, on average, immigrants received about $1710 more in Net transfer per capita than natives between 1997 and 2015. However, this cost is mainly the result of labour market imbalances which, after removing the effect of demographic differences, account for 85% of the surplus.
File Link: NTA14.Gil

Gilbert Montcho, Yves Carriere, Marcel Merette, Population Aging and Worklife Duration in Canada
Abstract: This paper estimates worklife duration, an expected labour supply that incorporates mortality, labour participation and workload (hours worked) at each age, and analyzes the Worklife ratio, the share of life expectancy devoted to working. It also decomposes the changes in worklife duration into demographic and behavioural components, thus isolating the contribution of population ageing to the change between 1981 and 2016. Results suggest that worklife duration has not declined as the population has aged. Instead, we found that between 1981 and 2016, worklife duration increased by 4.96 years while its ratio to life expectancy increased by 3.55 percentage points. Labour force participation has been the main driver of these changes contributing, 3.57 years against 0.73 and 0.65 years for workload and mortality, respectively. These results bring counterarguments into the ongoing debate in Canada to increase the retirement age in the name of shrinking working life duration to finance increasing life expectancy.
File Link: NTA14.Gila

Harron, Sharifah Azizah, Hamid Tengku Aizan, Demographic change and active ageing in Malaysia
Abstract: Malaysia is projected to be an aged nation in 2030. Population ageing in Malaysia is inevitable as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped drastically reaching below the replacement level (about 2.1) in 2010, accompanied by steadily increasing life expectancy at birth has risen which stand at 73.4 years in 2022. The shift in the age structure of the population and the growing proportion of life afflicted by non-communicable diseases raise new challenges to countries. So, population ageing is often associated with slower growth and the increasing burden of care. a notion that is rejected by WHO, i.e. older person is an untapped resources. Objective: The objectives of this paper are to: (1) analyse the impact of demographic changes on economic growth; (2) determine active ageing and its hindrance among elderly in Malaysia. Method: The estimates were calculated based on the NTA methods. For this study, datasets from the 2019 Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HIES), a nationwide survey collected by the Department of Statistic was utilized.
File Link: NTA14.Har

Herasimau Raman, Immigrants in NTA: case of Slovakia
Abstract: The migration process becomes more and more intensive in European region. In this paper I use National transfer account methodology to build LCD account, Transfer account and Asset-based reallocation account both for immigrants and natives for Slovakia. Earning behavior of immigrants and natives in Slovakia differs – immigrants work after retirement age and have higher income compared to natives. At the same time immigrant population is excluded from such surveys as HBS and EU SILC which limited us in understanding their transfers and consumption. In addition, I suggest slight changes in NTA methodology in respect to immigrant population, that eventually can provide more accurate results.
File Link: NTA14.Her

Honkatukia, Juha, Vaittinen, Risto, Evaluating the welfare costs of the COVID-19 -pandemic in Finland with an AGE model of with Intergenerational Accounting
Abstract: This paper studies the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on Finland. We study distributional effects from the points of view of gender and intergenerational income distribution. We show that the effects of the pandemic have been different for men and women across different age groups. In Finland, household income grew steadily even during the pandemic, reflecting the effective safety-nets of a Nordic welfare state. We study possible measures the government could be taking to tackle the debt from the point of view of inter-generational income distribution, ranging from raising taxes to cutting public spending. Our analyses utilise an intergenerational CGE model, which integrates transfer accounting to a cohort-specific modelling of household decision-making and public service provision to households. We can measure the evolution of generational equality and can study the implications of cost-cutting policies in terms of their gender and inter-generational welfare effects.
File Link: NTA14.Hon.slides NTA14.Hon.paper

Im-em, Wassana, Kumar, Sanjay, Ibrahim, Shadiya, Utilization of NTA evidence for policy attention: Lessons learned from Asia-Pacific
Abstract: Background: Ageing is escalating in Asia-Pacific’s population dynamics with persistent socio-economic structural challenges. While several countries have produced NTA and used the results to support policy development, some countries have limited experience in applying the NTA measures and results for policy attention. This paper updates how UNFPA Offices in Asia-Pacific region have worked together to support the governments on using NTA for policy attention. Methods: One of the most important advantages of the NTA is that it is comparative, which is in large part due to its consistent methodology (e.g. UN Manual). By comparing the NTA results across countries and over time, we can provide evidence for areas of improvement for policy development. Country case studies from India and the Maldives will be presented. Results: While the populations of Asia are ageing and growing more slowly, we show there is substantial heterogeneity within the region. We show the generational economy perspective using NTA evidence to support engagement of policy planners on addressing demographic diversity and dividends, gender, and population ageing in Asia-Pacific for policy development.
File Link: NTA14.Im

Istenič, Tanja, Souto, Guadalupe, Abío, Gemma, Rentería, Elisenda, Patxot, Ció, The gender gap in paid and unpaid work along the life cycle: The role of the family
Abstract: This paper examines how men and women in Spain contribute to market and non-market production and share it among household members in different living arrangements, considering the role of partnership and parenthood status. Our results show that women produce more in the market at the beginning of the life cycle, but soon, when they become a couple and have children, they focus on non-market production, widening the gender gap. Men have relatively stable market production whether they are fathers or not. Moreover, if they live alone, men are able to self-produce the housework they consume. However, when they live in a couple (without children), their household production decreases while their consumption increases at the expense of the transfers they receive from the other members of the couple. In addition, the presence of children has a positive effect on men's care work, but overall women spend more time on paid and unpaid work combined, regardless of living arrangements.
File Link: NTA14.Ist

JAVED ALAM, Dr. Preeti Dhillon, Effects of low fertility and low mortality on India’s economy: A National Transfer Accounts approach
Abstract: This study aims to examines the effects of low fertility and low mortality on India's economy with its implications on different age groups. This study utilized macro data from second round of India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II) conducted during 2011-12, and from Indian Account statistics. Population projections were taken from World Population Prospects. We adopted NTA approach and used a decomposition model to measuring the respective effects of fertility and mortality on separate aspects of the economy such as labour income, private and public consumption, and public and private transfers. The results showed that the effects of low fertility and low mortality on the economy are very different in direction, magnitude, and impact by age group. The only effect of an aging population on the public pension system: low fertility and mortality will increase pressure on the public pension system of India.
File Link: NTA14.JAV

Jiménez-Fontana, Pamela, New (and old) demographic challenges: analysis of the generational economy in Costa Rica
Abstract: In Costa Rica, the life cycle deficit of people under 20 years old is financed mainly through family (67%) and public transfers (32%). Elderly finance their life cycle deficit mostly through public transfers (64%), however, recent estimations show that private asset-based reallocations have increased their relative participation.This study identifies several key differences when the analysis is broken down by gender and educational level. Given the time women spend doing unpaid work, their contribution to labor income is lower than men, however, this gap is higher between those with lower educational qualifications. Also, the more recent estimations show a peak in productivity of men and women around 40 years old with higher educational qualifications. These gaps by gender and educational level confirm the increase trend in inequality of Costa Rica. The fiscal demographic dividend of Costa Rica ended around 2018, which implies more fiscal pressures to the health system and pensions.
File Link: NTA14.Jim


Using National Transfer Accounts framework, this paper makes an attempt to assess the implications of policy changes in terms of changes in lifecycle deficit and changes in public and familial support of elderly specially in meeting lifecycle deficit between 2004-05 and 2011-12. It is found that labour income of elderly has increased marginally during 2004-2012, but level of consumption of elderly marginally slips down. Lifecycle deficit (LCD) of elderly population of 60 years and older has declined due to the intertwining effect of increased in labour income and declining consumption. Familial support to elderly has not improved during 2004-2012, instead their net contribution to intra-household transfer is more than what they benefit. Asset, based reallocation remains the main source of financing the LCD of elderly. Benefit of elderly in meeting their lifecycle deficit from policy changes is nominal. Key words: Policy reforms; lifecycle deficit; intergenerational transfers; labour income; consumption; intergenerational support; public policy
File Link: NTA14.Lai

Laowong, Pataraporn. Thailand's Policy Perspective on the Third Demographic Dividend
Abstract: Thailand had gained the first demographic dividend for decades and ended in 2011. The efforts to harness the second dividend by increasing labour productivity have been made for years, some aspects are improved, for example means years of schooling, company training. However, many gaps are still pertain especially how to keep labour competency up with a context of an such advancement of technology. And this year, Thailand is a completely aged society and will become a super aged society in the next 10 years. Many policies have been set up concentrating on how to level up the quality of life of older persons in all dimensions. But still, the 3rd demographic dividend has not shown a clear path yet probably because there are too many dimensions to deal with, administering by many ministries, and a magnitude of the target group are huge. Thus, a comprehensive and focus plan for a long-term population is formulated to bridge crucial elements together with mechanisms of operations at the ground level work more effectively so that Thailand’s second and the third demographic dividends can be achieved in the end.
File Link: NTA14.Lao

Laouali Ibro Chaibou, Impact of intergenerational transfers on economic activity and national income
Abstract: This study aims to determine the impact of intergenerational transfers on economic activity and the formation of national income. The study first traces the evolution and characteristics of intergenerational transfers in Niger. Through the different categories of household expenditure, the study will identify the structure of transfers between age categories, within households and between households. The study will then make the link between transfers and national accounting aggregates, both from the supply side and the demand side (production, consumption, investment). It will then describe the links between the levels and structure of transfers with the general level of activity and the impact on national income. The study will be based on the methodologies of national transfer accounts
File Link: NTA14.Lao

Latif Dramani, Camille Guidime, Marthe Ndoye, Comparative Analysis of NTTA results in West Africa
Abstract: This paper seeks to estimate and value the time allocated to the unpaid domestic work in West Africa Countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal). To this end, the methodology of National time transfer accounts (NTTA) has been used over data sourced from the harmonized survey on households' living standards (EHCVM) in 2018. The key findings show that: (i) women are the major time contributors for completing unpaid domestic work; (ii) activities including ""Household works"" and "Care" are the main time consumers and (iii) the monetary value of time devoted to unpaid domestic work would accounts for around 5% to 23% of GDP in 2018. This denotes an effectiveness of women and girls' empowerment policies in implementation over time in the region. However, this raises the urgent need for creating a formal ""Care"" market or building a robust care economy to cope with the societal mutation and demographic changes ongoing in west Africa region.
File Link: NTA14.Lat

Latif Dramani, Edem Akpo, Oga Jean Baptiste, Monitoring Demographic Dividend in West Africa Countries
Abstract: In 2018, the DDMI of the SWEDD zone is estimated at 42.8% against 39.7% in 2014, an increase of 3.1 percentage points. Thus, the region is now 7 points below the level required for the exploitation of DD in the West African zone. With regard to the scores obtained individually by the countries, we can distinguish two categories of countries according to the level of exploitation of SD. The first category includes countries that are close to exploiting SD. These are Senegal (49.2%), Mauritania (49.1) and Benin (48.4%). The second category is made up of all the other countries whose DDMI is more or less distant from the level necessary for DD capture. This difference between zones is a sign of the structural economic changes that have taken place in recent years.
File Link: NTA14.Lata

Abstract: The huge population of Nigeria and its heterogeneity at the subnational levels implies that the process and opportunities for harnessing the demographic dividend would be location-specific. This paper seeks to compare the results of the available national (Nigeria) and the two subnational (Kaduna and Lagos States) National Transfer Account Profiles. Kaduna is a northern state while Lagos a southern state in Nigeria. The lifecycle surplus lasts for 34 years at national level, its duration was 23 years and 18 years respectively for Kaduna and Lagos States. At national level, child deficit ends at 28 years, old age deficit commences at 64 years. In Kaduna, child deficit ended at 35 years, old age deficit started at 60 years whereas in Lagos, child deficit stopped at 38 years and old age deficit began at 58 years. Given their peculiarities, the opportunities facing each state differ and different policy options are required.
File Link: NTA14.Law

Lee, Ronald, Economic Growth, Intergenerational Transfers, and Population Aging
Abstract: Population aging affects the output and macroeconomy directly because labor force growth is slower and because capital per worker rises, raising productivity and leading to higher wages and lower interest rates. Population aging also affects the public and private systems that redistribute output across age groups by altering the relative numbers of donors and recipients, typically requiring either that donors give more or that recipients get less. Consequently, population aging has both positive and negative effects on economic wellbeing at the individual level and alters both market and non-market distributions of income. The net outcomes differ from country to country depending on their demography, institutions, and policies as data from National Transfer Accounts can illuminate. Population aging is also associated with changes in policy and individual behavior. The low fertility that causes population aging is associated with higher investments in human capital of children, raising their productivity. It also releases parental time for increased labor supply (partially offsetting slower growth in working age population), home production, or leisure. Longer life may lead to postponed retirement and/or increased saving. Possibly an older labor force will be less flexible and less creative, leading to slower technological progress and productivity growth. Capital may flow through international markets from capital-rich aging populations of higher income countries to labor-rich and capital-poor countries with younger and more rapidly growing populations. In recent years many new studies have examined these issues theoretically and empirically. Some have focused on Keynesian worries that aging may bring secular stagnation: Low and declining real interest rates constrain policy options for Central Banks seeking to stimulate the economy. Slow population growth may reduce investment demand as investors anticipate less growth in demand for their products. The combined effect may mire aging economies in slow growth and high unemployment.
File Link: NTA14.Lee

Likitpattanakul, Pradittha, Economic Change of lowest income household in Thailand
Abstract: Lowest income household, the first quintile group or households at the bottom of the income distribution in Thailand, only be a quintile group have long had to deal with situation of expenditure higher than income. Due to the economic insecurity of these households, it was important to study focus on the characteristics and economic status of households in order to the government could track and monitor the standard of living for people belonging to this group. The study in the decade (2011 to 2021) from the household socio-economic survey found that inequality has decreased as the proportion of household expenditure per household income tended to decrease dispersion between each quintile group including Gini coefficient of income shares decrease. Analyses based on household economy characteristics show that public policies change the structure of household income over the decade as found the main source of lowest income household came from public assistance.
File Link: NTA14.Lik.Pres NTA14.Lik.Paper

maliki, dinar kharisma, fisca aulia, Social protection transfers role to reducing poverty: an NTA approach
Abstract: This paper attempts to see how the programs have become a significant financing source of the poor consumption and therefore contribute to the lower inequality. By using National Transfers Account Methodology, we estimate the financing sources of the individual consumption. By imputing the social protection program as government transfers to the designated primary household members, we estimate how the poverty alleviation program transfers varies across age by the socio-economic status: poor and non-poor and by the place of residents: urban and rural. Further, we also simulate the improvement of the accuracy of the program become higher than 60%, meaning that more than 60% of the poorest now receive the assistances. This estimate will provide us with insight on the followings: First, how significant is the government transfers finance the consumption, especially the children and elderly. Second, how the poverty alleviation program significantly affects the consumption supports of the poorest family out from the poverty line. Third, how the improvement of accuracy of the program will increase a chance of poor children and the elderly will shift-out from the poverty.
File Link: NTA14.mal

maliki, Regional disparity and implication to the demographic dividend
Abstract: Income inequality in Indonesia has increased over time, recording the highest GINI coefficient in 2015. The island of Java continues to be the main contributor to national GDP, with significant variance across other regions of Indonesia. One of the main obstacles to reducing inequality at the national and local levels is the high rate of labor participation in the informal sector. Large informal sectors dominate the economy, with more than 55% working in informal and low productivity sectors such as agriculture and services. The informality outside Java is strongly connected to lower productivity, and contribute significantly to the disparity. The quality of human capital, indicated by lower human development index, plays a major role in their lower productivity. An estimate at the national level of the first and second demographic dividend (using Mason (2005) model) showed that an improvement in productivity, especially for those at the peak earning age, will lengthen the demographic dividend period and contribute to higher economic growth.
File Link: NTA14.mala

Mason, Andrew, Sustainable Consumption in an Aging World
Abstract: Age profiles of consumption and labor income must adjust to population aging or other changes in age structure. In countries that are aging, consumption will decline relative to labor income. By how much depends on several factors: the changes in fertility and mortality, the impact of demographic factors on interest rates, and policies towards age-reallocations. Under steady-state assumptions, sustainable profiles of consumption and labor income can be estimated. The simulation model is applied to Japan where consumption must decline very sharply relative to labor income. Higher fertility rates or greater emphasis on funded old-age support systems will help but to only a limited extent. The simulation model can be applied to any country with NTA data.
File Link: NTA14.Mas

Morne Oosthuizen, Education and the Economic Lifecycle in South Africa
Abstract: Inequality in South Africa has been accentuated by centuries of discriminatory race-based policy, which has had a profound impact on the economic lifecycle of different race groups. Given constraints on access to education, this race-based inequality is also evident in terms of educational attainment. This paper analyses the economic lifecycle for different educationally-defined groups and considers the potential impact of improvements in education on the country's waning dividend.
File Link: NTA14.Mor

Morné Oosthuizen, The Economic Impact of Population Change in Jamaica
Abstract: This paper examined the economic implications of Jamaica’s population changing age-structure. The median age of the Jamaican population was 30.7 years in 2020, however by the end of the century it will be approximately 52.5 years. The paper constructed the NTA for Jamaica for 2019, utilizing the methodology published by the United Nations (2013), to analyze the demographic dividend. Based on UN’s (2019) medium fertility population projection, Jamaica finds itself in the latter stages of the first demographic dividend: by 2029, the changing age structure of the population is therefore expected to be a drag on economic growth. The negative dividend will be particularly strong during the 2050s, but will range between -0.3 percent and just over -0.5 percent from the late 2040s until 2100. Importantly, the timing and magnitude of these estimates of the first dividend are not significantly impacted by the choice of the labour income profile.
File Link: NTA14.Mora

Morne Oosthuizen, The Economic Lifecycle and the Demographic Dividend in Lesotho
Abstract: Lesotho, a small mountainous landlocked country in Southern Africa, had a population of just over 2.1 in 2020. This paper presents the first estimates of the economic lifecycle in Lesotho, finding that the country produces a lifecycle deficit across the life course, likely the result of substantial labour migration to South Africa. Lesotho's dividend is found to be falling rapidly, although it will stabilise at just over 0.2 percent for three decades from the 2040s.
File Link: NTA14.Morb

Murithi Moses Kinyanjui, Mutegi Reuben, Mwabu Germano, Unpaid Care work in Kenya: Gender and Age profiles During COVID19 pandemic.
Abstract: Unpaid Care work especially in child care has been drastically impacted by COVID-19 in Kenya. Unpaid care work in the household have faced increased workloads and heightened risk of infection during the COVID19 health shock. The burden of unpaid care and domestic work, which already fell disproportionately on women before the pandemic as shown by Muriithi, Mutegi and Mwabu( 2020), has increased dramatically during the pandemic, and current data from Kenya National Bureau Statistics (KBNS) and World Banks(2021) data can be used to attest to this hypothesis. The objective of this paper is to use currently available data to bring evidence on the age differential and magnitude of gender inequality on unpaid care work during the COVID19 pandemic. The methodology has followed Counting Women Work (CWW) strategy at identifying and defining unpaid care work as per Donehower(2014). This findings will be helpful at providing policy suggestion(s) to government based on the future preparedness in the face of a shock that has a gender inequality buildup effect especially in the unpaid part of the care economy.
File Link: NTA14.Mur

National Administrative Department of Statistics, Manuel Hernando Pava Guzman, Beatriz Piedad Urdinola Contreras, Ana Maria Mondragon, National Transfer Accounts of Colombia – 2017
Abstract: Following the methodological guidance of the United Nation’s NTA Manual (2013), the guidance of Lee & Mason (2011), as well as the support provided by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE), and close collaboration with the academia in Colombia, DANE was able to produce the first official calculation of the NTA’s in 2017. The construction of the age profiles required for the calculation of the NTA’s had as its main sources the National Household Budget Survey (ENPH, by its acronym in Spanish) conducted between the second half of 2016 and the first half of 2017, and the results of the 2017 Integrated Economic Accounts of the System of National Accounts (SNA) for Colombia. The NTA results (2017) are presented in Colombian Pesos (COP $) at current values.
File Link: NTA14.Nat

Abstract: Nigeria is largely heterogenous with peculiar population dynamics at national and sub-national levels. Given the differences in governmental efforts to harness the Demographic Dividend (DD) in the country, it becomes imperative to monitor its progress. To achieve this, the Demographic Dividend Monitoring Index was developed as a composite index, comprising the perception (DDPI) and outcome indices (DDOI), using five domains adapted from the thematic pillars of the National DD Roadmap. DDPI measures the key stakeholders’ perceptions about governmental efforts through survey on policymaking, services/programs, research, advocacy and civil society in each domain towards the DD attainment, while the DDOI used 96 standardized indicators to measure specific outcome of the DD-related activities in Nigeria. The findings showed that stakeholders have higher perception of governmental effort in harnessing DD while the outcome index revealed that the efforts are rather sluggish in harnessing the dividend in the country.
File Link: NTA14.ODU

OGA Idossou Jean-Baptiste, GUIDIME Dètondji Camille, DRAMANI Latif, Lifecycle and economic growth in Benin between 2007 and 2019
Abstract: This paper studies economic lifecycle in Benin between 2007 and 2019 and its impact on economic growth. For this purpose, we estimate age profiles of consumption and labor income using the National transfer account methodology. We use data from four round of national representative surveys. The results show that the variations of economic lifecycle influence economic growth in Benin via the 1st demographic dividend. Benin has begun to harness the demographic dividend but its contribution to the economy is steal weak. During the last five years (2017-2021), the two dividends contributed, on average, at 20% of the growth of the real GDP per consumer.
File Link: NTA14.OGA

Abstract: Nigeria is a federation of 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Given the largely heterogeneous nature of Nigeria’s demographic profile, creating and harnessing the demographic dividend (DD) will require in-depth consideration of the peculiarity of the component states. This paper seeks to document the process of creating and harnessing the demographic dividend as well as how the process has been institutionalized in Nigeria. This study is hinged on theory of change which provides a comprehensive illustration of why and how desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. The multi-sectoral nature of dividend requires that data is obtained from diverse, but reliable sources. The strategy for the institutionalization involves a multi-stakeholder consultative process, in a 4-phase programming step. The steps include preparation, planning, implementation and control. The lessons learnt from the process emphasized on explicit government commitment and good governance, strategic partnerships and stakeholders’ buy-in.
File Link: NTA14.Ola

Olivera, Javier, A distributive analysis with National Transfers Accounts in Peru
Abstract: NTA are informative about the effect of ageing on various forms of intergenerational transfers. Once these accounts are also disentangled by socio economic status and are computed for at least two periods of time, they can be very useful to understand changes in economic inequality across age and years. This chapter illustrates the use of some standard distributional analysis tools with National Transfer Accounts (NTA) applied to the case of Peru for years 2007 and 2014. The main results show that younger individuals have been the relative “winners” of the sustained economic growth experienced in the country during the last two decades. In addition, the equalization power of tertiary education has increased in this period, i.e. having more individuals with this education reduces inequality. The negative side is the deterioration of the living conditions of the older and less educated individuals.
File Link: NTA14.Oli

Patxot, Ció, Spielauer, Martin, Horvath, Thomas, The effect of educational expansion and family change on the sustainability of public and private transfers
Abstract: We examine the impact of ageing and related socio-economic trends (educational expansion and changes in family structure) on the sustainability of public and private transfers. Recently available disaggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTA) are combined with dynamic microsimulation techniques to build the first dynamic microsimulation model that incorporates NTA accounting (microWELT) and is thus able to capture how agents rely on public and private transfers over their lifecycle. MicroWELT simulates the major lifetime transitions at the individual level: education, emancipation, fertility, partnership formation and dissolution, and death. Four European countries, representative of four welfare models (Austria, Finland, Spain, and the UK) are simulated. We compare sustainability indicators for the economy, the public sector, and families in the NTA tradition with enriched indicators that capture additional composition effects. We show that composition effects due to educational expansion that interact with changes in family structures alleviate the effects of aging.
File Link: NTA14.Pat

Prabhakara N R, Causesof Child Labor: A Review
Abstract: The problem of child labor is a global problem. Larger number of children are involved in agriculture, fishing, manufacturing, mining, and domestic work. Some of them are involved in very hazardous work as well as in illicit activities like the child trafficking, drug trade and serving as soldiers. These works keep them far from the school as well as block their physical and mental development. In India there is a large number of child laborers. This paper discusses about the factors which are root cause for child labor.
File Link: NTA14.Pra

Qi, Haodong, Bevelander, Pieter, Immigrants' Economic Life-Cycle and the Generational Economy in Sweden
Abstract: Population aging presents a looming challenge for sustaining inter-generational transfers from the economically productive population to dependent elderly. This paper offers an interdisciplinary perspective on whether immigration may alleviate this economic challenge for an aging welfare state. By combining Swedish Income Registers and age profiles of consumption from National Transfer Accounts, we computed immigrants' life-cycle deficits and compared them with the native-born Swedes and the children of immigrants. Our results suggest that immigration in Sweden is beneficial from a pure demographic perspective, but less so from an economic perspective.
File Link: NTA14.Qi

Reuben Gitonga Mutegi, Moses Muriithi Kinyanjui, Germano Mwiga Mwabu, THE NEXUS BETWEEN COVID-19 LOCKDOWN AND UNPAID WORK IN KENYA
Abstract: The government containment measures implemented to help slow spread of Covid-19 have had an unprecedented effect on labour markets, affecting millions of workers and businesses. Most countries used border closures, partial or complete economic lockdowns, and curfews to slow the spread of the pandemic, resulting to temporary/permanent closure of businesses, schools, and social services, among other things. People were forced to stay indoors due to the lockdown and curfews. These restrictions may have affected the number of hours spent on unpaid work by individuals in households. This paper therefore seeks to determine whether the COVID-19 lockdown influenced the number of hours spent on unpaid work by individuals disaggregated by age, gender, level of education, and area of residence (rural/Urban). The paper uses Kenya Life Panel Data and World Bank data on Covid 19 collected in 2020 and 2021 by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank.
File Link: NTA14.Reu

Rikiya Matsukura, Setsuya Fukuda, Shall we be released from housework?: The economic impact of automation in unpaid work
Abstract: Frey and Osborne have presented a tentative calculation, according to which 47% of the working population in the U.S. will become replaceable by machines within 10 to 20 years from now. On the other hand, due to the appearance of services which offer help in housework and time-saving household appliances, the amount of time humans spend on housework has shrunk. Nonetheless, we still do not live in a society in which robots and AI do all the housework. Although the number of Japanese households in which both husband and wife work is increasing, most of the household chores are still shouldered by women. Thus, while humans still spend a lot of time on housework, technological advancements have reduced its burden. In this presentation, we will use the previously mentioned F&O automation rate for each occupation and combine it with NTTA. We will show the economic impact by assuming that the reduced hours of housework and nursing care obtained by automation were worked. We also analyze whether men or women can benefit more from automation.
File Link: NTA14.Rik

Riyaza Fathimath, Preparing for ageing by investing in human capital spending
Abstract: Maldives is the only Upper middle-income country in the South Asian region (SAARC region). However, human capital spending on children is relatively low in Maldives given its current economic development and fertility level. NTA results show that per capita human capital spending goes down as fertility decreases and goes up as per GDP increases. However, children in Maldives, as in its South Asian neighbors India and Bangladesh, receive less in human capital investment than children in other economies with similar levels of fertility or development, and the gap is quite substantial. Among economies with similar TFR, children receive about four years’ worth of prime-age labor income in human capital investments on average. In Maldives, however, the average human capital investment in children is less than two years’ worth of prime-age labor income. The same story holds for per capita GDP. If this trend continues, Maldives will not be able to reap the maximum benefit out of the youth population and prepare well for population aging.%File Link: NTA14.Riy

Sahanogullari, Nazli, Public Transfers for Elderly and the Effects of Pension Reforms in Turkey: An NTA Approach
Abstract: Aging will have serious impact on pay-as-you-go(PAYG). The rising number of elderly is a burden for working-age generations and it also strains social insurance and pension system.In addition to that, declining working age population will lead to problems in social security. For the upcoming elections, one of the promises is called EYT reform meaning “those hindered from retirement due to age”. When the EYT is passed the current workload of social security will increase due to the decreasing working-age population. NTA methodology allows us to estimate the elderly deficit by age and also how it can be financed through transfers and reallocations. In Turkey, pensions account a large part of public cash transfers, and transfers for pensions mainly shape the public transfer inflows. This study shows the elderly deficits historically and the proportion of pension inflows in cash transfers. The study also aims to show the effect of the new reform on social security system and provide important information for policymakers.
File Link: NTA14.Sah

Sambt, Jože, Istenič, Tanja, Unveiling childcare and long term care hidden behind the primary activities
Abstract: The age patterns of unpaid work given and received have been calculated for numerous countries by the NTA research community. Childcare turns out to be a very important transfer from parents to their children in all countries. In Slovenia, transfers from grandparents to grandchildren are also substantial. Moreover, in all countries long term care is not explicitly reported in the time use surveys. We examine in more detail the extent and age patterns for these two transfers based on the special survey conducted for Slovenia. We conclude that these two types of transfers can be heavily underestimated in the results based on traditional time use surveys, especially in countries that only report primary activities, but not secondary (and tertiary) activities. Given the expected shift in retirement age in the future, this “hidden” care for children and the elderly will have to be provided informally by someone else, or formally (public sector).
File Link: NTA14.Sam

Sánchez-Romero, Miguel, Prskawetz, Alexia, Socio-economic consequences of increased longevity in contemporary populations
Abstract: Using a multi-country dynamic (general equilibrium) economic model, populated by overlapping generations, we assess the effects of increasing life expectancy on economic growth and inequality in European countries. Our economic model accounts for both the direct effect of changes in the age structure of the population, given the economic characteristics, and the indirect effect of population changes on age specific economic behaviour in a globalized economy. Projections for the period 2020-2100 show that future life expectancy improvements (i) will have a negative impact on consumption and income per capita; (ii) negatively affect the accumulation of assets (more so in high income compared to middle income European countries due to the more generous pension systems in high income countries); and (iii) will lead to an increase in the intergenerational income inequality due to the fall in asset income at old-age. However, we also find that more generous old-age public transfer systems mitigate the negative impact of life expectancy gains on inequality.
File Link: NTA14.San

Sanchez-Romero, Miguel, Vanhuysse, Pieter, Gal, Robert Ivan, Reconstructing historical changes in the inter-age resource reallocation system
Abstract: We reconstruct historical National Transfer Accounts (NTA) age profiles for selected countries by feeding a dynamic general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations with demographic data from the Human Mortality Database and historical national accounts data. The model contains three types of agents: one representative firm, the government, and heterogeneous households that differ by size and the age and education of the household head, consistent with the demographics of each country (HMD and WIC Human Capital Explorer). Household heads demand final goods and intermediate goods, supply paid and unpaid labor, and receive and give private and public transfers. The model generates NTA age profiles of consumption, labor income, public transfers (including public debt), and private transfers (including bequest) starting in the 19th century in a way that ensures their consistency with macroeconomic data.
File Link: NTA14.Sana

Shen, Ke, Wang, Feng, Cai, Yong, When Abundance Ends: Economic Transformation, Population Aging, and Shrinking Lifecyle Surplus in China, 2000-2020
Abstract: China in past two decades has travelled through two seemingly different worlds: the fastest economic growth in the first decade, and an underappreciated slowdown in the second. Per capita labor income rose 2.7 times between 2002 and 2010. Income growth continued but at a pace substantially slower, only 1.9 times between 2010 and 2018. Meanwhile, the pace of consumption increase began to outstrip the pace of income growth in the recent decade. Such profound economic changes and rapid demographic change have put a huge dent on the surpluses accumulated during China’s age of abundance. This study attempts to showcase with the shift to consumption-driven economic growth model and the aging process, how China converges towards high-income countries who run huge lifecycle deficit. We examine the changes in labor income, consumption and lifecycle surplus at the national level and across the ages. Moreover, we carry out a decomposition exercise, to estimate the separate roles of economic transformation and demographic change to appreciate the shrinking lifecycle surplus in recent years. Finally, we discuss the social and political implications of China’s shrinking surplus.
File Link: NTA14.She

Shiqin, Choo, Singapore's Economic Support Ratio by Education
Abstract: This work looks at changes in Singapore’s economic support ratio (ESR) from 1970-2020. The ESR is evaluated by determining the number of net workers over the number of net consumers. Singapore’s rapid economic development historically had been attributed to favourable demographics – from large cohorts of the population entering the workforce for several decades. In this work, the contribution of education using data on highest qualification attained (HQA) is evaluated through the use of Das Gupta’s decomposition technique. We find that the demographic effect and education effect have both contributed to Singapore’s ESR, and that education effect had been significant in sustaining Singapore’s ESR. The contribution from education is expected to be important in the context of Singapore’s rapidly ageing population.
File Link: NTA14.Shi

Shraberman, Kyrill, Weinreb, Alex, National transfer accounts in Israel: First estimates by subpopulation
Abstract: Baseline NTA estimates for Israel deviate from those of other wealthy countries in a number of ways. These deviations follow from Israel’s unusual combination of standard wealthy country characteristics (high life expectancy, levels of education, women’s labor force participation, and late effective age at retirement) with otherwise non-standard characteristics (high fertility and young age structure driving 1.9% annualized growth rates). Here we disaggregate patterns of income, consumption and transfers within Israel’s NTA into three main subpopulations: Haredi (ultra-orthodox) Jews, non-Haredi Jews, and Arabs. Each of these has a highly distinct fertility, educational and labor market profile. Initial results confirm that these distinctions are reflected in very different lifecycle patterns across measures of income, consumption and public and private transfers. We will present a limited set of these differences at the conference and talk about their importance as Israel’s population composition shifts alongside rapid growth over the next 20 years.
File Link: NTA14.Shr

Simone Wajnman, Cassio M Turra, Challenges measuring the care economy: how to integrate different methodological approaches and offer a comprehensive perspective?
Abstract: We discuss a comprehensive methodological framework to integrate the various dimensions of the care economy and measure paid and unpaid care activities that characterize the sector. We propose a typology based on work relationships (housework and out-of-home market, both paid and unpaid), the nature of interactions (direct or indirect), and the frequency of care services received to offer an exhausting approach to quantify every working hour involved in the care economy. Also, we examine how our methodological framework is compared to and can benefit from the National Time Transfer Accounts.
File Link: NTA14.Sim

Tomáš Domonkos, Štefan Domonkos, Slovak NTA from 2005 to 2020
Abstract: In this research we present the Slovak NTA for four different time periods, namely 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. This paper contributes to the extant literature in three different areas: First, we provide evidence about the age patterns of labor income, consumption and the life-cycle deficit after the EU accession. This period includes major economic upswings (2005-2007 and 2015-2019) as well as years marked by low- or negative economic growth (2009-2013). Second, we analyze the stability of the life-cycle deficit over this period and identify which age profiles are subject to significant variations over time. Third, our analysis documents how human capital investment evolved over time in a fast-growing emerging economy after its accession to the EU. We investigate whether there is any evidence of increasing investment into the quality of labor, which could mitigate the adverse effects of demographic ageing.
File Link: NTA14.Ste

Vargha Lili, Istenič Tanja, Towards a typology of economic lifecycle patterns: Clustering of countries based on NTA (and NTTA) age profiles
Abstract: Using different clustering techniques, we explore how countries based on NTA age profiles can be grouped together. Typology of countries based on NTA data was made before, but used NTA data on an aggregate level for clustering (Istenič, Sambt and Vargha 2019; Istenič, Sambt and Farčnik 2020). We, however, use age specific data in our analysis and aim to consider the maximum amount of information about the economic lifecycles of different countries. We calculate dissimilarity/distance matrices of LCD, TG, TF age profiles and use hierarchical clustering methods. Moreover, we explore how NTTA age profiles and gender-specific information can be included in a multidimensional analysis. With our analysis we aim to understand the variation of different economic lifecycle patterns in a data driven explorative way.
File Link: NTA14.Var

Vladimir Kozlov, NTA and NTTA approach in the estimation of the premature mortality burden. Evidence from Post-Soviet space
Abstract: In this paper we follow the approaches by Hanly & Sharp (2014) who took the non-paid household labour in the mortality estimation and Vogt & Kluge (2015) with their NTA implementation in the mortality disparities. The research is devoted to the estimation of the economic losses from the premature mortality and particularly the Covid-19 pandemics. Our preliminary results based on the Russian NTA 2019 version and the discrepancies between 2020 and 2022 demographic projection losses demonstrated short-term 0,5% decrease in Income due to the excess mortality as well as the 0,7% decrease in Consumption (more than 3% in 65+ group), followed by 3,5% decline of public transfers and about the same growth of private transfers. In the longer period of time (until 2035) the pandemics lead to the deficit decrease, but for the private transfers the situation is not so clear. For the further estimations time budgets and the preliminary results for pandemic year 2020 will be taken into consideration. Additionally, to the Russian case the materials from Moldova and Kyrgyzstan upon the permission with these countries teams are expected to be presented as robustness checks.
File Link: NTA14.Vla

Warangkanand, Adhipat, Institutionalization of the NTA method and generation of datasets in Thailand
Abstract: This poster/presentation proposes a step-by-step process in which Thailand successfully institutionalized the NTA methodology and dataset generation. This process is described by using infographics over the course of less than a decade. As a result, the NTA has evolved into an essential tool for providing evidence-based recommendations to the government of Thailand. The poster/presentation will portray a process of key stakeholders and processes involved in the institutionalization of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) to generate indicators that could measure government intervention and plan for the future. As a consequence, other countries can gain knowledge from the beneficial practices that Thailand has initiated and continue to keep NTA relevant for the policymaking process. This has the potential to be one of the evidence-based solutions to the demographic challenge of any country with an ageing population coupled with its low fertility rate.
File Link: NTA14.War

Wendy Cunningham, Sarika Gupta, Mitja Del Bono, Liberian Women Count: Evidence from a Macrosimulation of the Gender Dividend
Abstract: We develop a macrosimulation model of the Gender Dividend that estimates the economic contributions of women and the societal costs incurred by excluding them from reaching their productive potential. Using data from Liberia, we first estimate the economic contributions that women make, including contributions that are made from non-tradeable sources of production such as housework and domestic chores. We then predict the potential economic contributions that women would be able to make if there were equality of opportunity and capability by gender (a closure of gender gaps) across a range of inputs to economic growth and productivity, including educational attainment, labor force participation, and wages. Our results indicate that 39 percent of economic activity in Liberia, measured by the aggregate output of labor, can be attributed to women. This proportion increases to 50.2 percent if gender gaps across the factor inputs were closed and 53 percent if we include contributions from non-tradeable production. The findings indicate that maximizing the potential of women would increase Liberia’s GDP by 10-25 percent, yielding significant gains to economic growth and development.
File Link: NTA14.Wen

Wilde, Joshua, Karra, Mahesh, Savings and the Demographic Dividend
Abstract: In the Demographic Dividend literature, a large proportion of the theoretical benefit to reducing fertility rates is typically attributed to increased savings by families with fewer children, which in turn leads to higher investment and increased formation of productive capital. However, the evidence on the magnitude of the effect of reduced fertility on savings rates and on the extent to which those savings are translated into subsequent investment, which directly speaks to the importance of this key theoretical channel, is unclear. In this study, we use a recent macrosimulation model from Karra, Canning, and Wilde (2017) to estimate the overall effect of savings under a range of commonly used savings and investment assumptions. We find that changes in savings only contributes greatly to the Demographic Dividend under few, and likely unrealistic, modeling assumptions, thereby implying that caution is warranted when using increased savings as a central rationale for promoting fertility decline.
File Link: NTA14.Wil

Wongniyomkasat, Watcharapol. Current work on Thailand NTA: The 2021 revision of Thailand NTA and implications for sustainable consumption by the elderly
Abstract: Thailand has produced the first NTA since 2002 until now. In terms of application, NTA has been used in policy formulation, policy advocacy and policy assessment. In 2023, NTA 2021 data will be prepared and compared between the year 2019 and 2021 to illustrate the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, NTA data will be used to assess the sustainability of consumption of the elderly in Thailand to reflect the consistency of the country's pension system. The findings will gear to a policy brief to further develop and improve the country's pension system to be more concretely. The preliminary results showed that elderly consumption is also unsustainable because consumption levels are relatively higher than labor income, making it challenging to find other sources of income to cover the deficit.
File Link: NTA14.Won

Yeganeh Forouheshfar, Najat El Mekkaoui, Nidhal Ben Cheikh, Asma Benhassen, Jacob Emont, Social security coverage and informal workers in Tunisia
Abstract: Informality is prevalent in Tunisia, limiting the access of a large share of the population to social safety nets. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated more than ever the importance of an inclusive and stable social protection system. Meanwhile, informal workers have been disproportionately affected by the health crisis, hence, extending social security coverage to workers in the informal sector is vital. This paper provides a brief overview of the existing social protection schemes and programs in Tunisia and aims to analyze challenges and opportunities for the extension of social protection to informal workers in the labor market, through studying the main characteristics of Tunisia’s informal workforce and also the characteristics of those informal workers who have transitioned to formality. Finally, we provide policy recommendations tailored to Tunisia’s current situation.
File Link: NTA14.Yeg








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