Demographic Dividend
Generating Evidence on Realizing the Demographic Dividend in Africa
Fertility decline produces a demographic dividend by reducing the number of children relative to the number in the working ages. The size of the dividend and its contribution to national development are uncertain and dependent on the policy environment. Previous research has shown that the dividend had very important and lasting effects in East Asia, but the experience for Africa is yet to be written. Two broad issues will be explored by this project. First, how can countries that have not completed the fertility transition realize a substantial demographic dividend; second, how can those countries use that dividend to achieve higher rates of economic growth.
The East-West Center, the Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California at Berkeley, and the Foundation for Economics Education, in Abidjan are working with research teams in seven African countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Mozambique, Senegal, and South Africa) to improve understanding of the demographic dividend. This work is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Bill & Melinda Gates Institute of Population and Reproductive Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
NTA Publications on the Demographic Dividend in Africa
NTA Bulletin 6: Population Change and Economic Growth in Africa
August 2013. Download at: NTAbulletin6.
NTA Country Brief Kenya: Boosting Kenya's Demographic Dividend
March 2013. Download at: Kenya report.
NTA Country Brief Mozambique: Mozambique at the Start of a Demographic Dividend
March 2013. Download at: Mozambique report.
NTA Country Brief Nigeria: Will Nigeria Benefit from a Demographic Dividend?
March 2013. Download at: Nigeria report.
NTA Country Brief Senegal: Will Senegal Enjoy a Demographic Dividend?
March 2013. Download at: Senegal report.
NTA Country Brief South Africa: Capturing South Africa's Demographic Dividend?
March 2013. Download at: South Africa report.
World Bank Meeting on the Demographic Dividend, July 23, 2013
The World Bank convened a meeting on the Demographic Dividend in collaboration with the Bill & Melinda Gates Institute of Population and Reproductive Health. Andy Mason presented estimates of the demographic dividends in Africa based on NTA: Mason 2013 World Bank Talk.
Presentations on the Demographic Dividend in Africa
Presented at the Workshop on Generating Evidence on Realizing the Demographic Dividend in Africa, conducted during the Ninth Meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers, Barcelona, Spain, June 2013
Wednesday, 5 June 2013
Demographic Dividend and National Transfer Accounts: Interim Status Report (Interim status report DD Barcelona)
Overview of the Demographic Dividend: Andrew Mason (Overview DD Barcelona)
Demographic Dividend: Global Perspective: Ron Lee (DD Global Perspective Barcelona)
Thursday, 6 June 2013
Emerging Evidence on the Demographic Dividend of Africa: Adedoyin Soyibo (Africa DD Barcelona)
Friday, 7 June 2013
Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends: Evidence from Kenya's National Transfer Accounts: Moses Muriithi, Reuben Mutegi, and Germano Mwabu (Kenya DD Barcelona)
Mozambique at the Start of a Demographic Dividend: Gilberto M. Norte and Cassiano Chipembe (Mozambique DD Barcelona)
Emerging Evidence on the Demographic Dividend of Nigeria: Adedoyiin Soyebo, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, and Akanni O. Lawanson (Nigeria DD Barcelona)
Demographic Dividend in Senegal: Latif Dramani, Fahd Ndiaye, and Ouarmé Alaya (Senegal DD Barcelona)
Maximizing South Africa's Demographic Dividend: Morne Oosthuizen (South Africa DD Barcelona)
Ethiopia's Age Profiles of Labor Income and Private Consumption: Teferi Mergo (Ethiopia DD Barcelona)
Emerging Evidence of the Lifecycle Deficit of Ghana: Eugenia Amporfu, Daniel Sakyi, and Prince Boakye Frimpong (Ghana DD Barcelona)
Supporting Material
Workshop on Realizing the Demographic Dividend in Africa: Conducted during the Ninth Meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers, Barcelona, Spain, June 2013 Agenda
Support ratios, first dividend, and economic lifecycle estimates African dividend estimates