Abstract WP10-09

David Bloom, Jocelyn Finlay, Salal Humair, Andrew Mason, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, Adedoyin Soyibo. 2010. Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective.

Abstract: We quantify the economic growth opportunity created by Nigeria’s demographic transition and make policy recommendations on how to realize this growth, focusing particularly on investment in Nigeria’s human capital. Using a cross-country growth model, we first estimate the size of the demographic dividend Nigeria could enjoy; how it might be increased by health and institutional improvements; and how it might affect poverty. Using an original analysis of Nigeria’s economic lifecycle, we then try to understand the conditions needed to realize the dividend, focusing particularly on the challenges and opportunities in increasing Nigeria’s labor productivity, and investments in health and education. We conclude with policy recommendations.

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