Abstract WP08-10

Tim Miller, Ciro Martinez, Paulo Saad, and Mauricio Holz. "The Impact of the Demographic Dividend on Three Key Support Systems: Education, Health Care, and Pensions." Paper presented at the UNFPA/IFS Expert Group Meeting on Mainstreaming Age Structure Transitions into Economic Development and Planning; Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, 7-9 October 2008.

This paper examines the impact of changing age structures on transfer systems. The analysis is based on a simple age model that assumes a fixed age shape of average transfer benefits and payments – whose levels shift in response to changes in the population age structure. The paper begins with a broad overview of transfers and then focuses more narrowly on public sector transfers and public secondary education. Section 1 provides estimates on the impact of changes in population age structure on familial and public sector transfers for 20 countries in Latin America over the period 1950-2050. Section 2 takes a closer look at the possible impact of age structure changes in the public sector by forecasting public education, health care, and pensions using the age model. Section 3 examines the funding costs of universal secondary education in Latin America.

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