NTA10

NTA Work2

Tenth Meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers: Beijing, China, 10 - 14 November 2014

Group Photo

Participants in Tenth NTA Meeting, Beijing, November 2014

The tenth NTA meeting included a one-day conference in which member presented their latest research findings and a one-day International Symposium on Demographic Change and Policy Response. The meeting also included a three-day workshop with training sessions for both new and more experienced NTA members. This website gives the agenda for these events with summaries of presentations, presentation slides, and information about the presenters.

Conference: Presentations of NTA research (Thursday 13 November 2014)

Welcoming remarks

Chair: Ling Li, Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University

Speakers: Juwei Zhang (Director, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Ronald Lee (Professor of the Graduate School and Founding Director, Emeritus, Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California Berkeley); Andrew Mason (Professor of Economics, University of Hawaii - Manoa, and Senior Fellow, East-West Center)

Development of NTA

Chair: Ling Li, Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University

Development of NTA (Sang-Hyop Lee)

Session One: Demographic transition and the macro economy (Chair: Jan W. van Tongeren)

Do changing population age distributions and NTA profiles drive macroeconomic change? A decomposition analysis (Ronald Lee)

The role of demography in macroeconomic development after the financial crisis in Finland (Risto Vaittinen and Reijo Vanne)

Demographic transition and economic growth in Benin (Barthélémy Biao)

Analyzing wealth through an integrated economic and demographic framework: The case of the Netherlands (Arjan Bruil and Jan W. van Tongeren)

Age structure changes and economic growth in Vietnam (Pham Ngoc Toan)

Session Two: Demographic transition and the demographic dividend (Chair: Amy Tsui)

Fertility, mortality, and economic development: An analysis of 201 countries during 1960-2010 (Qingfeng Li, Li Liu, Amy Tsui, and Saifuddin Ahmed)

China's age of abundance: An update (Wang Feng, Shen Ke, Li Ding, and Yong Cai)

Decreasing fertility, aging populations, and the lifecycle deficit: The case of South Korea (Hyun Kyung Kim)

First demographic dividend and migration in El Salvador: How much have we lost? (Werner Peña) About Werner Peña

Session Three: Fiscal and public transfers (Chair: Nicholas McTurk)

Public sector and population aging (Andrew Mason)

Are current tax and spending regimes sustainable in developing Asia (Sang-Hyop Lee) About Sang-Hyop Lee

Social insurance transfers in Poland (Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak)

The fiscal impact of population aging: The case of Brazil (Cassio M. Turra, Bernardo Queiroz, and Elisenda Rentería Pérez)

Session Eight: Time Use and Methodology Development (Chair: Morné Oosthuizen)

Can we measure time consumption for unpaid work? An analysis for European countries (Marina Zannella)

From US$30 to US$20: On how to support family caregiving and make it a legitimate choice (Estela Rivero and Anairis Hernández Jabalera)

Bayesian estimation in NTA frameworks (Jan W. van Tongeren and Arjan Bruil)

Four levels of intergenerational indicators (Lili Vargha and Robert I. Gal)

Comparison of internal rates of return from intergenerational transfer systems (Michael R.M. Abrigo)

International Symposium on Demographic Change and Policy Response (Friday 14 November 2014)

Opening remarks (Dan Kong, Former Chairman, CITIC Group)

Keynote speeches

Capital in the twenty-first century (Thomas Piketty, Professor of Economics, Paris School of Economics)

Piketty presentation

Thomas Piketty's remarks on NTA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4JJDFyG-p4)

Thomas Piketty's remarks on gender (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaRQ2cfx7Rg)

Is low fertility and rapid population aging really a problem? (Andrew Mason, Professor of Economics, University of Hawaii - Manoa, and Senior Fellow, East-West Center)

Mason presentation

Demographic Dividend: Supply-side view and evidence on Chinese growth (CAI Fang, President, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

CAI Fang presentation

Aging: A celebration, a challenge, and an opportunity (Arie Hoekman, Representative of UNFPA China)

Hoekman presentation

Economic dependency ratios in a comparative European setting: National transfer accounts and the AGENTA Project (Alexia Furnkranz-Prskawetz, Deputy Director and Research Group Leader, Vienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences)

Furnkranz-Prskawetz presentation

Family and economic policy in a context of changing gender roles (Gretchen Donehower)

Donehower keynote presentation

Panel discussions

Inequality and growth: The roles of capital and the lifecycle

Moderator: Ronald Lee, Professor of the Graduate School and Founding Director, Emeritus, Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California Berkeley

Ronald Lee presentation

Panelists: Fang Cai (Vice President, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Zhiyuan Cui (Professor, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University); Ping Huang (Director, Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Ling Li (Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University); Andrew Mason (Professor of Economics, University of Hawaii - Manoa, and Senior Fellow, East-West Center); Thomas Piketty (Professor of Economics, Paris School of Economics)

Experience and expectations using the Demographic Dividend framework to advance development policy

Moderator: Jose “Oying” Rimon, Director, Bill & Melinda Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Panelists: Eugenia Amporfu (Chair, Economics Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology); Sahlu Haile (Sub-Saharan Regional Advisor, David and Lucile Packard Foundation); Fasli Jalal (Chairman, National Family Planning Coordinating Board, Indonesia); Nicholas McTurk (Technical Specialist, Population and Development Policy, UNFPA); Zhenzhen Zheng (Professor, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

Social security policy in aging societies

Moderator: Ling Li, Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University

Ronald Lee presentation2

Panelists: Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak (Assistant Professor, Institute for Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics); Arie Hoekman (Representative of UNFPA China); Ronald Lee (Professor of the Graduate School and Founding Director, Emeritus, Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California Berkeley); Haichao Lei (Vice Director, Beijing Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning); Juwei Zhang (Director, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, and Director, Research Center for Labor and Social Security, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

Training Workshops for NTA Members (Monday - Wednesday, 10 - 12 November 2014)

Monday 10 November 2014

Welcome session (Ling Li, Qiulin Chen, Andrew Mason, and Ronald Lee)

Track A

Lecture: Orientation (Gretchen Donehower) Orientation Gretchen Donehower About Gretchen Donehower

Lab: Data orientation, getting started (Gretchen Donehower) About Gretchen Donehower

Lecture: NTA and the macro economy (Andrew Mason) NTA and the macro economy About Andrew Mason

Lab: Macro controls (Michael Abrigo) About Michael Abrigo

Track B

New research and open agenda (Ronald Lee)

Policy-relevant indicators (Robert Gal)

Time use and gender: Hands-on workshop (Gretchen Donehower) Donehower Time Use About Gretchen Donehower

Tuesday 11 November 2014

Track A

Lecture: Lifecycle deficit (Nicole Mun Sim Lai) About Nicole Mun Sim Lai

Lab: Lifecycle deficit (Nicole Mun Sim Lai) About Nicole Mun Sim Lai

Lecture: Transfers (Gretchen Donehower) Donehower Transfers About Gretchen Donehower

Lab: Transfers (Gretchen Donehower)About Gretchen Donehower

Track B

Generational accounts (Young Jun Chun) Chun Generational Accounts About Young Jun Chun

Time use and gender (Gretchen Donehower) Donehower Time Use2 About Gretchen Donehower

Wealth accounts (Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason) About Andrew Mason

Bequests (Miguel Sánchez Romero) Sanchez Romero bequests presentation About Miguel Sánchez Romero

Wednesday 12 November 2014

Track A

Lecture: Asset-based reallocations (Jože Sambt) About Jože Sambt

Lab: Asset-based reallocations (Gretchen Donehower) About Gretchen Donehower

Workshop: Communicating NTA results to policymakers (Sidney B. Westley) Westley presentation About Sidney Westley

Track B

Fiscal impacts (Andrew Mason) About Andrew Mason

Regional meetings (regional coordinators)

Inequality (Sang-Hyop Lee) Sang-Hyop Lee presentation on NTA by socio-economic status About Sang-Hyop Lee

Host Institution

The meeting was held at the National School of Development, which is based with the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University. The National School of Development is a scientific research and educational institution focusing on the comprehensive study of social sciences. The School is committed to the internationalization, standardization and localization of social science study in China and to innovation in disciplinary systems, academic perspectives and research methods.

Thanks to the faculty and students of the National School of Development, who provided excellent organizational support and assistance to all of us who attended the meeting. In particular, thanks to Professor Ling LI and all her excellent helpers: Qiulin CHEN, Xueping SUN, Ruifeng LI, Yujie HE, Chunyu YANG, Hongchun ZHAO, Hongqiao FU, Wei HAN, Yun CAI, Nan GUAN, Ju WANG, Zihao CHEN, Yuxi HU, Zhen HU, Xinwei GAO, Jiajia PAN, Yuqi TA, Zhongda WANG and Yifan WEI. You folks are the greatest!