Bayesian estimation in NTA frameworks (Jan W. van Tongeren and Arjan Bruil)

This is a parallel paper to the first paper on “Analyzing economic growth through an integrated economic and demographic framework: The case of the Netherlands.” It is not about NTA concepts and analysis, but about the methodology of compilation of NTA. It includes an explicit NTA framework, with age profiles for an extended household sector, but also data for other sectors without age profiles. Explicit links are included between the inflows and outflows of the household and other sectors and the balance sheets of those sectors. A concept of transfer wealth is included in the household sector. The data based on the 2010 national accounts for the Netherlands are included in order to illustrate the conceptual framework, and micro data are used to estimate age profiles of the data. Discrepancies between micro data totals and macro aggregates of the national accounts are explicitly included, so that they can be reconciled in a Bayesian estimation process.

Structural ratios characterizing the graying population in the micro data, such as consumption, composition of disposable income, and wealth/worth of different age groups, are measured only for 2010. For an earlier year, 1990, macro totals are measured, so that measurements can be made of macro ratios characterizing the graying population. The changing ratio values are used in alternative scenarios for projections of data.

van Tongeren and Bruil presentation

About the authors








Copyright (c) 2004-2017