Abstract WP10-06

Bernardo L. Queiroz and Cassio M. Turra. 2010. Window of Opportunity: socioeconomic consequences of demographic changes in Brazil

In the last few decades , Brazil has experienced major demographic changes. From a young age structure in the 1970, the population is gradually shifting to an older distribution. The transformation in the population age structure can have important impacts on economic growth. This paper estimates the demographic dividends in Brazil, and shows that demographic changes could have positive impacts on economic growth, but lack of investments in human capital and poor institution could lead to a slower growth than what could be expected from the population change. We also analyzed two components of the first demographic dividend: private and public. We observe that high public transfers to the elderly reduces the magnitude and duration of the fiscal dividend and could also harm the realization of the second dividend.

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